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Crop-based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty

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  • Mallory, Mindy
  • Hayes, Dermot J.
  • Babcock, Bruce

Abstract

This paper examines the role of uncertain crude oil prices, uncertain crop yields, and competition for acreage on corn, soybean, and switchgrass prices under biofuel production mandates. We find enforcement of the cellulosic mandate is costly in that it raises equilibrium prices of all three crops through competition for acreage. However, crude oil prices largely determine industry profitability even in the face of high crop prices. Further we find that uncertainty in crude oil prices and crop yields causes higher corn, soybean, and switchgrass prices compared to a baseline with no uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Mallory, Mindy & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce, 2011. "Crop-based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 201111010700001481, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:201111010700001481
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    Cited by:

    1. Dumortier, Jerome & Kauffman, Nathan & Hayes, Dermot J., 2017. "Production and spatial distribution of switchgrass and miscanthus in the United States under uncertainty and sunk cost," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 300-314.
    2. Hyunseok Kim & GianCarlo Moschini, 2018. "The Dynamics of Supply: U.S. Corn and Soybeans in the Biofuel Era," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(4), pages 593-613.
    3. Dumortier, Jerome, 2013. "Co-firing in coal power plants and its impact on biomass feedstock availability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-405.
    4. Song, Jingyu & Delgado, Michael & Preckel, Paul & Villoria, Nelson, 2016. "Pixel Level Cropland Allocation and Marginal Impacts of Biophysical Factors," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235327, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Dumortier, Jerome, 2014. "Impact of different bioenergy crop yield estimates on the cellulosic ethanol feedstock mix," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 171168, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Basak Bayramoglu & Jean-François Jacques, 2016. "The economic and environmental effects of a biofuel mandate policy: the case of France [Les effets économiques et environnementaux d’une politique d’incorporation obligatoire de biocarburants : le ," Post-Print hal-02877013, HAL.
    7. Dumortier, Jerome, 2015. "Impact of agronomic uncertainty in biomass production and endogenous commodity prices on cellulosic biofuel feedstock composition," IU SPEA AgEcon Papers 198707, Indiana University, IU School of Public and Environmental Affairs.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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