IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2016i3p5-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary Effectiveness in Small Transition Economy – The Case of the Republic of Serbia

Author

Listed:
  • Dejan ŽIVKOV

    (Higher School of Professional Business Studies, Novi Sad, Serbia.)

  • Jovan NJEGIĆ

    (Higher School of Professional Business Studies, Novi Sad, Serbia.)

  • Nataša PAPIĆ-BLAGOJEVIĆ

    (Higher School of Professional Business Studies, Novi Sad, Serbia.)

  • Jovan PETRONIJEVIĆ

    (Faculty of Business Economy and Entrepreneurship, Serbia.)

Abstract

This paper examines the factors which influence the effectiveness of central bank in Serbia. Specifically, we have observed the effect of the various macroeconomic variables, inter alia uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) premium on the monetary policy. The results showed that risk premium, as the balancing value in UIRP, had a significant impact on the monetary policy. The research examined two sub-samples – before and after the world crisis. Before the crisis, central bank could affect its indirect targets, the nominal exchange rate and money supply, via higher interest rate. However, higher interest rate proved inefficient after the crisis, primary due very huge and abrupt depreciation of RSD SVAR model and its impulse response function (IRF) have been used in the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Dejan ŽIVKOV & Jovan NJEGIĆ & Nataša PAPIĆ-BLAGOJEVIĆ & Jovan PETRONIJEVIĆ, 2016. "Monetary Effectiveness in Small Transition Economy – The Case of the Republic of Serbia," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-18, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2016:i:3:p:5-18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_16/rjef3_2016p5-18.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
    2. Berk, Jan Marc & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2001. "Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-based exchange rate expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 377-391, February.
    3. Fisher, Eric O'N., 2006. "The forward premium in a model with heterogeneous prior beliefs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 48-70, February.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On cross-country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 375-397, April.
    5. Pang, Ke, 2013. "Financial integration, nominal rigidity, and monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 75-90.
    6. Gottschalk, Jan & Moore, David, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Case of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, March.
    7. repec:bla:etrans:v:9:y:2001:i:1:p:153-174 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. McNown, Robert & S. Wallace, Myles, 1989. "National price levels, purchasing power parity, and cointegration: a test of four high inflation economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 533-545, December.
    9. Frenkel, Jacob A., 1978. "Purchasing power parity : Doctrinal perspective and evidence from the 1920s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 169-191, May.
    10. Alba, Joseph D. & Park, Donghyun, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity in Developing Countries: Multi-Period Evidence Under the Current Float," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 2049-2060, December.
    11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Daniel Daianu & Laurian Lungu, 2007. "Inflation Targeting, Between Rhetoric and Reality. The Case of Transition Economies," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 39-64, June.
    13. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    14. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 127-154, July.
    15. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
    16. Cavaglia, Stefano & Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1993. "Further evidence on exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 78-98, February.
    17. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
    18. Alba, Joseph D. & Papell, David H., 2007. "Purchasing power parity and country characteristics: Evidence from panel data tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 240-251, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Cheng, Su-Yin & Hou, Han, 2011. "Further evidence on purchasing power parity and country characteristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 257-266, April.
    2. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
    3. Catherine Bruneau & Olivier De Bandt, 1999. "La modélisation Var "structurel" : application à la politique monétaire en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 67-94.
    4. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    5. Joakim Westerlund & Johan Blomquist, 2013. "A modified LLC panel unit root test of the PPP hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 833-860, April.
    6. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 1998. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-111, December.
    7. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    8. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "New Information Response Functions," Working papers 235, Banque de France.
    9. Elyasiani, Elyas & Kocagil, Ahmet E. & Mansur, Iqbal, 2007. "Information transmission and spillover in currency markets: A generalized variance decomposition analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 312-330, May.
    10. Mamoudou, Toure & Jamel, Trabelsi & Frédéric, Dufourt, 2009. "Empirical evaluation of nominal convergence in Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary (CPH)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 993-999, September.
    11. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2010. "For Rich or for Poor: When does Uncovered Interest Parity Hold?," Working Papers 015, Toronto Metropolitan University, Department of Economics.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    14. Lima, Elcyon Caiado & Maka, Alexis & Céspedes, Brisne, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Level of Economic Activity in Brazil After the Real Plan: Stylized Facts from SVAR Models," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(2), October.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Muhammad Javid & Kashif Munir, 2010. "The Price Puzzle and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Pakistan: Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 449-460.
    17. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    18. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2009. "VARMA models for Malaysian Monetary Policy Analysis," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    19. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    20. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2010. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on cross exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 386-394, August.
    21. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegić & Mirela Momčilović & Ivan Milenković, 2016. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in the European Emerging Economies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 253-270.
    22. Sterken, Elmer, 2003. "Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 200315, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk premium; structural VAR; referent interest rate; Serbia; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2016:i:3:p:5-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.