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The Cattle Price Cycle: An Exploration in Simulation

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  • Stockton, Matthew C.
  • Van Tassell, Larry W.

Abstract

The simulation of commodity prices has been undertaken using a myriad of techniques, with some omitting the cyclical component and others ignoring the presence of inter-temporal relationships expressed as autoregressive errors. This study examines the periodicity of cattle prices and the modeling of the cattle cycle for simulation purposes. The AIC criterion is used to determine lengths of various cycles to be included in a harmonic model, with a chained modeling approach providing the best representation of the cattle cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Stockton, Matthew C. & Van Tassell, Larry W., 2007. "The Cattle Price Cycle: An Exploration in Simulation," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37564, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccsci:37564
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37564
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aadland, David, 2004. "Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1977-2002, September.
    2. Franzmann, John R., 1971. "Cattle Cycles Revisited," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-8, December.
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    7. Bentley, Ernest & Waters, James R. & Shumway, C. Richard, 1976. "Determining Optimal Replacement Age Of Beef Cows In The Presence Of Stochastic Elements," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-6, December.
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    9. Stephen F. Hamilton & Terry L. Kastens, 2000. "Does Market Timing Contribute to the Cattle Cycle?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 82-96.
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    11. Barry W. Bobst & Joe T. Davis, 1987. "Beef Cow Numbers, Crop Acreage, and Crop Policy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(4), pages 771-776.
    12. Aadland, David, 2002. "Cattle Cycles, Expectations And The Age Distribution Of Capital," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19795, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    Cited by:

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