IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v88y2019ics0264837718314339.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Livestock dynamics under changing economy and climate in Mongolia

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Yecheng
  • Zhang, Yaoqi
  • Chen, Jiquan
  • John, Ranjeet

Abstract

Livestock is a key variable in understanding the complex relationships of coupled natural and human systems for pastoralist societies. We used a Two-Stage Dynamic Model to examine the dynamics of livestock in terms of sales, self-consumption, and stocking in Mongolia in recent decades. While Mongolian pastoralists remain largely in the subsistence economy stage, herders do respond to market factors such as current and expected prices, substitute food prices and debt to help guide their choices and behaviors to maximize the economic value of their livestock. Our results also find that the livestock is very vulnerable to natural disasters. Providing a better capital market and livestock market could be the most essential factor to facilitate the economic transition of Mongolia from a subsistence pastoral economy to a market economy and to increase the welfare of herders in Mongolia. Improved public supports, including climate-based livestock insurance, enhancement of infrastructure animal shelter, better capital markets, increased availability of weather information, and improved winter protection, are critical components to a sustainable level of livestock production.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Yecheng & Zhang, Yaoqi & Chen, Jiquan & John, Ranjeet, 2019. "Livestock dynamics under changing economy and climate in Mongolia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:88:y:2019:i:c:s0264837718314339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837718314339
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104120?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adams, Richard H, Jr & Alderman, Harold, 1992. "Sources of Income Inequality in Rural Pakistan: A Decomposition Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(4), pages 591-608, November.
    2. Hans‐Peter Weikard & Lars Hein, 2011. "Efficient versus Sustainable Livestock Grazing in the Sahel," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 153-171, February.
    3. Jarvis, Lovell S, 1974. "Cattle as Capital Goods and Ranchers as Portfolio Managers: An Application to the Argentine Cattle Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 489-520, May/June.
    4. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-244, April.
    5. Junjie Zhang & Martin D. Smith, 2011. "Estimation of a Generalized Fishery Model: A Two-Stage Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 690-699, May.
    6. Ayalew, W. & King, J. M. & Bruns, E. & Rischkowsky, B., 2003. "Economic evaluation of smallholder subsistence livestock production: lessons from an Ethiopian goat development program," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 473-485, July.
    7. Skees, Jerry R. & Enkh-Amgalan, Ayurzana, 2002. "Examining the feasibility of livestock insurance in Mongolia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2886, The World Bank.
    8. Sieff, Daniela F., 1999. "The effects of wealth on livestock dynamics among the Datoga pastoralists of Tanzania," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-25, January.
    9. Daniel J. Murphy, 2014. "Booms and Busts: Asset Dynamics, Disaster, and the Politics of Wealth in Rural Mongolia," Economic Anthropology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 104-123, January.
    10. Randal R. Rucker & Oscar R. Burt & Jeffrey T. LaFrance, 1984. "An Econometric Model of Cattle Inventories," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(2), pages 131-144.
    11. Turner, Matthew D. & Williams, Timothy O., 2002. "Livestock Market Dynamics and Local Vulnerabilities in the Sahel," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 683-705, April.
    12. Fernández-Giménez, María E. & Batkhishig, Baival & Batbuyan, Batjav & Ulambayar, Tungalag, 2015. "Lessons from the Dzud: Community-Based Rangeland Management Increases the Adaptive Capacity of Mongolian Herders to Winter Disasters," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 48-65.
    13. Maytsetseg, Baljinnyam & Riichiro, Iizawa, 2006. "Changes and Actual State of Mongolian Meat Market and Distribution System: A Case Study of Ulaanbaatar City's "Khuchit Shonhor" Food Market," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25528, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2013. "Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(3), pages 507-528, July.
    15. Aadland, David, 2004. "Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1977-2002, September.
    16. Orazio Attanasio & Britta Augsburg & Ralph De Haas & Emla Fitzsimons & Heike Harmgart, 2011. "Group lending or individual lending? Evidence from a randomised field experiment in Mongolia," IFS Working Papers W11/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    17. Marcus Taylor, 2016. "Risky Ventures: Financial Inclusion, Risk Management and the Uncertain Rise of Index-Based Insurance," Research in Political Economy, in: Risking Capitalism, volume 31, pages 237-266, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Foster, Kenneth A & Burt, Oscar R, 1992. "A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 419-426, October.
    19. Wei Ge & Henry Kinnucan, 2018. "Dynamic analysis of the livestock inventory in Inner Mongolia," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(3), pages 498-515, August.
    20. Yair Mundlak & He Huang, 1996. "International Comparisons of Cattle Cycles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 855-868.
    21. Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr. & Short, Sara D., 2001. "The Beef Cow Replacement Decision," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2), pages 1-21.
    22. John G. McPeak & Christopher B. Barrett, 2001. "Differential Risk Exposure and Stochastic Poverty Traps Among East African Pastoralists," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 674-679.
    23. Barry T. Coyle, 1992. "Risk Aversion and Price Risk in Duality Models of Production: A Linear Mean-Variance Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(4), pages 849-859.
    24. John D. Schmitz, 1997. "Dynamics of Beef Cow Herd Size: An Inventory Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 532-542.
    25. Aadland, David, 2002. "Cattle Cycles, Expectations And The Age Distribution Of Capital," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19795, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    26. John McPeak, 2004. "Contrasting income shocks with asset shocks: livestock sales in northern Kenya," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 263-284, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fluhrer, Svenja & Kraehnert, Kati, 2022. "Sitting in the same boat: Subjective well-being and social comparison after an extreme weather event," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Amartuvshin, Amarjargal & Chen, Jiquan & John, Ranjeet & Zhang, Yaoqi & Lkhagvaa, Dansranbavuu, 2021. "How does mining policy affect rural migration of Mongolia?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Svenja Fluhrer & Kati Kraehnert, 2024. "Mobile phone network expansion and agricultural income: A panel study," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 54-85, January.
    4. Bayarmaa Byambaa & Walter T. de Vries, 2021. "The Production of Pastoral Space: Modeling Spatial Occupation of Grazing Land for Environmental Impact Assessment Using Structural Equation Modeling," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mbaga, Msafiri Daudi & Coyle, Barry T., 2003. "Beef Supply Response Under Uncertainty: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Aadland, David, 2004. "Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1977-2002, September.
    3. Aadland, David, 2002. "Cattle Cycles, Expectations And The Age Distribution Of Capital," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19795, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Marsh, John M., 2001. "U.S. Feeder Cattle Prices: Effects Of Finance And Risk, Cow-Calf And Feedlot Technologies, And Mexican Feeder Imports," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr. & Short, Sara D., 2001. "The Beef Cow Replacement Decision," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2), pages 1-21.
    6. Cook, Billy & Biermacher, Jon T. & Childs, Dan, 2007. "PR - The Value Of Pregnancy Testing Spring-calving Beef Cows," 16th Congress, Cork, Ireland, July 15-20, 2007 345369, International Farm Management Association.
    7. Ralph Bierlen & Bruce Dixon & Bruce Ahrendsen, 2001. "Cattle cycles: is there a role for a financial accelerator?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 559-568.
    8. Riley, John Michael & Williams, Brian R., 2013. "Cow-Calf Industry Expansion on the Horizon? Market Signals vs. Outside Factors," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 143044, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
    10. Li, Yunhan & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2021. "The Vanishing U.S. Cattle Cycle: A Stochastic Cycle Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(3), September.
    11. Zhao, Zishun & Wahl, Thomas I. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2006. "Invasive Species Management: Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the U.S. Beef Industry," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 98-115, April.
    12. Katharina Lehmann-Uschner & Kati Krähnert, 2018. "When Shocks Become Persistent: Household-Level Asset Growth in the Aftermath of an Extreme Weather Event," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1759, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman & Ofori-Boadu, Victor & Salifou, Samaila, 2009. "A Foot and Mouth Disease Induced Model of US Excess Supply of Beef," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46053, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    14. Zhao, Huan, 2011. "Four Market Studies for the Beef and Electric Power Industries," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Rosen, Sherwin & Murphy, Kevin M & Scheinkman, Jose A, 1994. "Cattle Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 468-492, June.
    16. Wei Ge & Henry Kinnucan, 2018. "Dynamic analysis of the livestock inventory in Inner Mongolia," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(3), pages 498-515, August.
    17. Tozer, Peter & Marsh, Thomas, 2012. "Domestic and trade impacts of foot-and-mouth disease on the Australian beef industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(3), pages 1-20.
    18. Chitose, Atsushi & Weaver, Robert D., 2007. "Dynamics of Slaughter Weight Response to Market Price Changes for Japanese Beef Cattle," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 9, pages 1-14.
    19. Astrid Fliessbach & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Cycles in cattle and hog prices in South America," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1167-1183, October.
    20. Zhao, Huan & Hennessy, David A., 2009. "Rationalizing Time Series Differences Between Cow-Calf And Feeder Returns," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49486, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:88:y:2019:i:c:s0264837718314339. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.