IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/4403.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cattle Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Sherwin Rosen
  • Kevin M. Murphy
  • Jose A. Scheinkman

Abstract

U.S. beef cattle stocks are among the most periodic time-series in economics. A theory of cattle cycles is constructed, based upon rational breeding stock inventory decisions in the presence of gestation and maturation delays between production and consumption. The low fertility rates of cows and substantial lags between fertility and consumption decisions cause the demographic structure of the herd to respond cyclically to exogenous shocks in demand for beef and in production costs. Known biotechnology of cattle demographics imply sharp numerical benchmarks for the dynamic system that describes the evolution of cattle stock and beef consumption. These compare very closely to structural econometric time-series estimates over the 1875-1990 period and prove that systematic cattle cycles have a wholly rational explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sherwin Rosen & Kevin M. Murphy & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1993. "Cattle Cycles," NBER Working Papers 4403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4403
    Note: LS EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4403.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jarvis, Lovell S, 1974. "Cattle as Capital Goods and Ranchers as Portfolio Managers: An Application to the Argentine Cattle Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 489-520, May/June.
    2. Randal R. Rucker & Oscar R. Burt & Jeffrey T. LaFrance, 1984. "An Econometric Model of Cattle Inventories," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(2), pages 131-144.
    3. Glen D. Whipple & Dale J. Menkhaus, 1989. "Supply Response in the U.S. Sheep Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(1), pages 126-135.
    4. Foster, Kenneth A & Burt, Oscar R, 1992. "A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 419-426, October.
    5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    6. Nerlove, Marc & Grether, David M. & Carvalho, José L., 1979. "Analysis of Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780125157506 edited by Shell, Karl.
    7. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    8. James N. Trapp, 1986. "Investment and Disinvestment Principles with Nonconstant Prices and Varying Firm Size Applied to Beef-Breeding Herds," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(3), pages 691-703.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
    2. Aadland, David, 2004. "Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1977-2002, September.
    3. Aadland, David, 2002. "Cattle Cycles, Expectations And The Age Distribution Of Capital," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19795, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr. & Short, Sara D., 2001. "The Beef Cow Replacement Decision," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2), pages 1-21.
    5. Cook, Billy & Biermacher, Jon T. & Childs, Dan, 2007. "PR - The Value Of Pregnancy Testing Spring-calving Beef Cows," 16th Congress, Cork, Ireland, July 15-20, 2007 345369, International Farm Management Association.
    6. Ralph Bierlen & Bruce Dixon & Bruce Ahrendsen, 2001. "Cattle cycles: is there a role for a financial accelerator?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 559-568.
    7. Xu, Yecheng & Zhang, Yaoqi & Chen, Jiquan & John, Ranjeet, 2019. "Livestock dynamics under changing economy and climate in Mongolia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
    9. David Aadland, "undated". "The economics of cattle supply," Working Papers 2000-11, Utah State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman & Ofori-Boadu, Victor & Salifou, Samaila, 2009. "A Foot and Mouth Disease Induced Model of US Excess Supply of Beef," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46053, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    11. Zhao, Huan, 2011. "Four Market Studies for the Beef and Electric Power Industries," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. SaangJoon Baak, 2000. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Volatility and Welfare," Working Papers EMS_2000_01, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    13. Mbaga, Msafiri Daudi & Coyle, Barry T., 2003. "Beef Supply Response Under Uncertainty: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1-21, December.
    14. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Park, Myung D., 2009. "Looking for Cattle and Hog Cycles through a Bayesian Window," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49278, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Webber, C. A. & Graham, J. D. & MacGregor, R. J., 1988. "A Regional Analysis of Direct Government Assistance Programs in Canada and their Impacts on the Beef and Hogs Sectors," Working Papers 244071, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
    16. Ge, Wei & Kinnucan, Henry, 2016. "Dynamic analysis of the livestock inventory in Inner Mongolia," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252723, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    17. Eswaramoorthy, K., 1991. "U.S. livestock production and factor demand: a multiproduct dynamic dual approach," ISU General Staff Papers 1991010108000010523, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Marsh, John M., 2001. "U.S. Feeder Cattle Prices: Effects Of Finance And Risk, Cow-Calf And Feedlot Technologies, And Mexican Feeder Imports," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, July.
    20. David Aadland & DeeVon Bailey & S. Feng, "undated". "A theoretical and empirical investigation of the supply response in the U.S. beef-cattle industry," Working Papers 2000-12, Utah State University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.