IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iat19e/312581.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Hunger and Climate Change Adaptation through International Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Janssens, Charlotte
  • Havlik, Petr
  • Krisztin, Tamas
  • Baker, Justin
  • Tomoko, Hasegawa
  • Van Lipzig, Nicole
  • Maertens, Miet

Abstract

International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change would lead to up to 55 million people who are undernourished in 2050. Without adaptation through trade, the impacts of global climate change would increase to 73 million people who are undernourished (+33%). Reduction in tariffs as well as institutional and infrastructural barriers would decrease the negative impact to 20 million (−64%) people. We assess the adaptation effect of trade and climate-induced specialization patterns. The adaptation effect is strongest for hunger-affected import-dependent regions. However, in hunger-affected export-oriented regions, partial trade integration can lead to increased exports at the expense of domestic food availability. Although trade integration is a key component of adaptation, it needs sensitive implementation to benefit all regions.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Janssens, Charlotte & Havlik, Petr & Krisztin, Tamas & Baker, Justin & Tomoko, Hasegawa & Van Lipzig, Nicole & Maertens, Miet, 2019. "Global Hunger and Climate Change Adaptation through International Trade," 2019: Trading for Good - Agricultural Trade in the Context of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation... Symposium, June 23-25, 2019, Seville, Spain 312581, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iat19e:312581
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.312581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/312581/files/Session%208%20-%20Janssens.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.312581?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2016. "The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates," Working Paper Series WP16-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Frances C. Moore & Uris Baldos & Thomas Hertel & Delavane Diaz, 2017. "New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q2-130-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6889.
    5. Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean & Mondher Mimouni & Xavier Pichot, 2012. "MAcMap-HS6 2007, an Exhaustive and Consistent Measure of Applied Protection in 2007," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 130, pages 99-122.
    6. Edward J Balistreri & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte & David G Tarr & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2018. "Poverty, Welfare and Income Distribution Implications of Reducing Trade Costs Through Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 27(2), pages 172-200.
    7. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
    8. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Ivana Komunjer, 2012. "What Goods Do Countries Trade? A Quantitative Exploration of Ricardo's Ideas," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(2), pages 581-608.
    9. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tomoko Hasegawa & Shinichiro Fujimori & Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Jonathan C. Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Page Kyle & Jason F. L. Koopman & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Daniel Maso, 2018. "Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 699-703, August.
    11. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2004. "A Consistent, Ad-Valorem Equivalent Measure of Applied Protection Across the World: The MAcMap-HS6 Database," Working Papers 2004-22, CEPII research center.
    12. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    13. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008. "Assessing Applied Protection across the World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 850-863, November.
    14. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Houssein Guimbard & David Laborde Debucquet & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2009. "A Picture of Tariff Protection Across the World in 2004 MAcMap-HS6, Version 2," Working Papers 2009-22, CEPII research center.
    2. de Sousa, José & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2012. "Market access in global and regional trade," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1037-1052.
    3. Santiago Guerrero & Ben Henderson & Hugo Valin & Charlotte Janssens & Petr Havlik & Amanda Palazzo, 2022. "The impacts of agricultural trade and support policy reform on climate change adaptation and environmental performance: A model-based analysis," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 180, OECD Publishing.
    4. Hilel Hamadache & Sophie S. Drogue, 2014. "Staple food market regulation in Algeria, what is the alternative policy? A CGE analysis for wheat," Post-Print hal-02795719, HAL.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3lmdaefcr886ao8sahjmam30ke is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2006. "Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 207-232, July.
    7. Fontagné, Lionel & Martin, Philippe & Orefice, Gianluca, 2018. "The international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 115-129.
    8. Bureau, Christophe & Guimbard, Houssein & Jean, Sebastien, 2016. "What Has Been Left to Multilateralism to Negotiate On?," Conference papers 332753, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Bouët, Antoine & Cosnard, Lionel & Laborde, David, 2017. "Measuring Trade Integration in Africa," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 32(4), pages 937-977.
    11. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    12. Anne-Célia Disdier & Lionel Fontagné & Mondher Mimouni, 2015. "Tariff Liberalization and Trade Integration of Emerging Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 946-971, November.
    13. Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean & Mondher Mimouni & Xavier Pichot, 2012. "MAcMap-HS6 2007, an Exhaustive and Consistent Measure of Applied Protection in 2007," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 130, pages 99-122.
    14. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard, 2019. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 383-403.
    15. Lionel Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2019. "Product-Level Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2019-17, CEPII research center.
    16. Elisaveta Archanskaia & Guillaume Daudin, 2012. "Heterogeneity and the Distance Puzzle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9ji21mi9p3 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Feodora Teti, 2023. "Missing Tariffs," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 458, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    19. Houssein Guimbard & Maëlan Le Goff, 2014. "Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers 2014-28, CEPII research center.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3lmdaefcr886ao8sahjmam30ke is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9ji21mi9p3 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Koundouri, Phoebe & Papayiannis, Georgios I. & Vassilopoulos, Achilleas & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N., 2023. "Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 122007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Gouel, Christophe & Mitaritonna, Cristina & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2011. "Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2395-2403.
    24. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean, 2016. "Competing Liberalizations: Tariffs and Trade in the 21st Century," CESifo Working Paper Series 5962, CESifo.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iat19e:312581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iatrcea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.