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How did farmers act? An ex-post validation of normative and positive mathematical programming for an agent-based sector model

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  • Mack, Gabriele
  • Ferjani, Ali
  • Mohring, Anke
  • Zimmerman, Albert
  • Mann, Stefan

Abstract

This study evaluates normative (NMP) and positive (PMP) mathematical programming methods for the recursive dynamic agent-based sector model SWISSland, which determines production decisions for 3400 farm-level models for the ex-post period 2005 to 2012. This study clearly shows that PMP for crop production activities improves the forecasting performance of farm based agent-based models compared to NMP. It also shows that combining PMP and NMP could be a suitable approach for agent-based sector models. For short-term forecast PMP for all production activities and PMP combined with NMP lead to similar results. The results either show that PMP calibration based on revenues and PMP calibration based on the entropy approach lead to similar results. By combining PMP with NMP some limitations of PMP could be reduced. In branches where the adoption of new production activities is expected due to market, the NMP approach could be an appropriate solution.

Suggested Citation

  • Mack, Gabriele & Ferjani, Ali & Mohring, Anke & Zimmerman, Albert & Mann, Stefan, 2015. "How did farmers act? An ex-post validation of normative and positive mathematical programming for an agent-based sector model," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212201, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212201
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212201
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    1. Möhring, Anke & Mann, Stefan, 2020. "Causes and impacts of the mis-representation of agricultural policy—The case of food supply security payments in Switzerland," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 466-482.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance;

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