The Stability of Global Wheat Trade Network in the Post-Soviet Era: Trade Duration Approach

The international wheat market has entered into a new era since 2000 as the structural changes in post-Soviet Union states had impacts. Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine (KRU) have started to utilize their vast resources and rapidly became major actors in international grain markets. Romania in East Europe is another emerging grain exporter upon the collapse of the Iron Wall. Upon the Russia invasion of Ukraine and short-run disruptions in global wheat, corn and oilseed supply chains, it becomes a question how different is the sta-bility of grain trade relation between these new actors and old actors. We have tried to respond to this question by using the annual trade data during 2001-2021 and applying the discrete time hazard model to estimate the baseline hazard and the survival ratio for 11 major wheat exporters. The results of these estimations show that we can’t recognize separate clusters for old and new actors, and the probability of trade survival over a longer period is very diverse between old actors and new actors.