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Something in the Air: Information Density, News Surprises, and Price Jumps

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  • Fuess, Roland
  • Grabellus, Markus
  • Mager, Ferdinand
  • Stein, Michael

Abstract

This paper introduces a new information density indicator to provide a more comprehensive understanding of price reactions to news and, more specifically, to the sources of jumps in financial markets. Our information density indicator, which measures the abnormal amount of noisy “ticker” news before scheduled macroeconomic announcements, is significantly related to the likelihood of price jumps and independent of the magnitude of news surprises or pre-announcement trading activity. We therefore interpret this variable as a measure of additional uncertainty in the market, which is resolved by macroeconomic news as “hard” facts.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuess, Roland & Grabellus, Markus & Mager, Ferdinand & Stein, Michael, 2015. "Something in the Air: Information Density, News Surprises, and Price Jumps," Working Papers on Finance 1517, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2015:17
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Information density; jump identification; macroeconomic announcements; noisy information; price discovery process;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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