IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/agd/wpaper/13-003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Correcting inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals: which adjustments matter in Africa?

Author

Listed:
  • Asongu Simplice

    (Yaoundé/Cameroun)

Abstract

This paper assesses the adjustment of inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals of money (financial depth), credit (financial activity) and efficiency. Three main findings are established. (1) There are significant long-run relationships between inflation and the fundamentals. (2) The error correction mechanism is stable in all specifications but in case of any disequilibrium, only financial depth is significant in adjusting inflation to the long-run relationship. (3) In the long-run, short-term adjustments in the ability of banks to transform money into credit do not matter in correcting inflation. This is most probably due to surplus liquidity issues. Policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Asongu Simplice, 2013. "Correcting inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals: which adjustments matter in Africa?," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 13/003, African Governance and Development Institute..
    • Handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Correcting-inflation-with-financial-dynamic-fundamentals.-Which-adjustments-matter-in-Africa.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2013
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simplice A. Asongu, 2015. "Law,Finance, Economic Growth and Welfare: Why Does Legal Origin Matter?," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 7(2), pages 30-55, July.
    2. Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
    3. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-393, September.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Piesse, Jenifer & Thirtle, Colin, 2009. "Three bubbles and a panic: An explanatory review of recent food commodity price events," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 119-129, April.
    6. Bernd Hayo, 1999. "Money-output Granger causality revisited: an empirical analysis of EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1489-1501.
    7. repec:bla:intfin:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:139-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(33), pages 1-9.
    9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2002. "The Role of Output Stabilization in the Conduct of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Oecd, 2006. "Are House Prices Nearing a Peak?: A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 488, OECD Publishing.
    11. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    12. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    13. Harold Ngalawa & Nicola Viegi, 2011. "Dynamic Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks In Malawi," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 224-250, September.
    14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2002. "The Role of Output Stabilization in the Conduct of Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 213-227.
    15. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2011. "Working Paper 133 - Monetary Policy Transmission, House Prices and Consumer Spending in South Africa: An SVAR Approach," Working Paper Series 317, African Development Bank.
    16. Goujon, Michael, 2006. "Fighting inflation in a dollarized economy: The case of Vietnam," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 564-581, September.
    17. Simplice A. Asongu, 2013. "African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 186-201, December.
    18. repec:bla:intfin:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:213-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    20. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    21. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting \\"M\\" back in monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1217-1264.
    22. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    23. Fujii, Tomoki, 2013. "Impact of food inflation on poverty in the Philippines," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
    24. Reginaldo Pinto Nogueira, 2009. "Is monetary policy really neutral in the long-run? Evidence for some emerging and developed economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2432-2437.
    25. Saumitra, Bhaduri & Raja, Sethudurai, 2012. "A note on excess money growth and inflation dynamics: evidence from threshold regression," MPRA Paper 38036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Simplice ASONGU, 2011. "Why Do French Civil Law Countries Have Higher Levels Of Financial Efficiency," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 94-108.
    27. Simplice A., Asongu, 2011. "Law, Finance and Investment: does legal origin matter?," MPRA Paper 34698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2004. "The credit crunch in East Asia: what can bank excess liquid assets tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 27-49, February.
    29. Fabio Ghironi & Alessandro Rebucci, 2000. "Monetary Rules for Emerging Market Economies," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 476, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 13 Aug 2001.
    30. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    31. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard, 2006. "Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2006/115, International Monetary Fund.
    32. R. W. Hafer & Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "Detrending and the Money-Output Link: International Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(1), pages 159-174, July.
    33. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    34. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank.
    35. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "A Short-run Schumpeterian Trip to Embryonic African Monetary Zones," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 859-873.
    36. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    37. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    38. William A. Masters & Gerald E. Shively, 2008. "Introduction to the special issue on the world food crisis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 373-374, November.
    39. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    40. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does ‘Benign Neglect’ Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-164.
    41. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    42. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Monetary Policy Transmission, House Prices and Consumption," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Monetary Policy and the Economy in South Africa, chapter 4, pages 43-64, Palgrave Macmillan.
    43. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    44. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
    45. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    46. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Asongu Simplice, 2011. "Government Quality Determinants of Stock Market Performance in African Countries," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 11/019, African Governance and Development Institute..
    48. Gerald P. Dwyer & Rik Hafer, 1999. "Are money growth and inflation still related?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 84(Q2), pages 32-43.
    49. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    50. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Quentin Wodon & Hassan Zaman, 2010. "Higher Food Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa: Poverty Impact and Policy Responses," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 157-176, February.
    52. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    53. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simplice Asongu, 2016. "New empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 164-204, June.
    2. Asongu Simplice, 2013. "Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 13/005, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "How Would Monetary Policy Matter In The Proposed African Monetary Unions? Evidence From Output And Prices," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 34-63.
    4. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Fighting consumer price inflation in Africa. What do dynamics in money, credit, efficiency and size tell us?," MPRA Paper 41553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Asongu, Simplice A., 2014. "A note on the long-run neutrality of monetary policy: new empirics," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 3(1), pages 1-6.
    6. Simplice Asongu, 2013. "How Would Population Growth Affect Investment in the Future? Asymmetric Panel Causality Evidence for Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 14-29.
    7. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 276-289, June.
    8. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    9. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "A Short-run Schumpeterian Trip to Embryonic African Monetary Zones," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 859-873.
    10. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2020. "The comparative African regional economics of globalization in financial allocation efficiency: the pre-crisis era revisited," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-41, December.
    11. Asongu, Simplice & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2015. "The Comparative African Regional Economics of Globalization in Financial Allocation Efficiency," MPRA Paper 71173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sara E. Bennett & Mahendhiran Nair & John H. Hall, 2016. "Bond Market Development, Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 175-201, June.
    13. Asongu, Simplice, 2015. "Financial development in Africa - a critical examination," MPRA Paper 82131, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Carlos Alberto Barreto Nieto & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2012. "Relación a largo plazo entre consumo de energía y PIB en América Latina: Una evaluación empírica con datos panel," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, October.
    15. Ramesh Chandra Das & Tonmoy Chatterjee & Enrico Ivaldi, 2022. "Nexus between Housing Price and Magnitude of Pollution: Evidence from the Panel of Some High- and-Low Polluting Cities of the World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-18, July.
    16. Thian-Hee Yiew & Chin-Yu Lee & Lin-Sea Lau, 2021. "Economic growth in selected G20 countries: How do different pollution emissions matter?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11451-11474, August.
    17. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2011. "Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, FDI (foreign direct investment) and GDP (gross domestic product): Evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, I," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 685-693.
    18. Omri, Anis, 2018. "Entrepreneurship, sectoral outputs and environmental improvement: International evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 46-55.
    19. Edmore Mahembe & Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo, 2019. "Foreign aid, poverty and economic growth in developing countries: A dynamic panel data causality analysis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1626321-162, January.
    20. Gharehgozli, Orkideh, 2021. "An empirical comparison between a regression framework and the Synthetic Control Method," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 70-81.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Excess money; inflation; credit; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Asongu Simplice (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agdiycm.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.