IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/9809009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Money-Output Granger Causality Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Bernd Hayo

    (ZEI-University of Bonn)

Abstract

In this paper, the evidence collected in the large literature on testing for Granger-causality from money to output is revisited. Using a broad data base of 14 EU-countries plus Canada, the US and Japan, and quarterly data from the mid 60s to the mid 90s, a number of hypotheses from this literature is evaluated. It is found that very few general conclusions can be sustained. For instance, in most countries it is not the case that the use of data in levels creates a bias in favour of finding Granger-causality effects of money on output compared to using differences. Neither does the significance of money lags decline when increasing the number of variables included in the model. What appears to be robust, though, is that allowing for asymmetries clearly increases the likelihood of finding significant causality effects. Based on the Granger-causality test results, a number of country groups are obtained using cluster analysis, which are characterised by a similarly behaviour with respect to the money-output relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Hayo, 1998. "Money-Output Granger Causality Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries," Macroeconomics 9809009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9809009
    Note: Type of Document - Adobe pdf-file; prepared on PC; pages: 25; figures: included
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/9809/9809009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
    2. Hafer, R W & Kutan, A M, 1997. "More Evidence on the Money-Output Relationship," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 48-58, January.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-257, May.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Lars Ljungqvist, 1987. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation," Staff Report 108, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Davis, Mark S. & Tanner, J. Ernest, 1997. "Money and economic activity revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 955-968, December.
    6. Thornton, Daniel L & Batten, Dallas S, 1985. "Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 164-178, May.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Ljungqvist, Lars, 1988. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate money-output relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 217-235, September.
    8. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    9. Pentti Pikkarainen & Matti Virén, 1989. "Granger causality between money, output, prices and interest rates: Some cross-country evidence from the period 1875–1984," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(1), pages 74-82, March.
    10. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Tessier, David, 1993. "On the relationship between impulse response analysis, innovation accounting and Granger causality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 327-333.
    11. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    12. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    13. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    14. Krol, Robert & Ohanian, Lee E., 1990. "The impact of stochastic and deterministic trends on money-output causality : A multi-country investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 291-308.
    15. repec:bla:econom:v:47:y:1980:i:188:p:387-406 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    17. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    18. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-380, June.
    19. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shu-Ping Shi & Stan Hurn & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2016. "Causal Change Detection in Possibly Integrated Systems: Revisiting the Money-Income Relationship," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2059, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. R. W. Hafer & Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "Detrending and the Money‐Output Link: International Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(1), pages 159-174, July.
    3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Tessier, David, 1997. "La causalité entre la monnaie et le revenu : une analyse fondée sur un modèle VARMA-échelon," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 351-366, mars-juin.
    4. Jonathan B. Hill, 2007. "Efficient tests of long-run causation in trivariate VAR processes with a rolling window study of the money-income relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 747-765.
    5. Maganya, Mnaku H. & Ndanshau, Michael O. A., 2020. "Money and Output in Tanzania: A Test for Causality," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.
    6. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, October.
    7. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Tarnaras, Panayiotis, 2015. "Quantity-of-money fluctuations and economic instability: empirical evidence for the USA (1958–2006)," MPRA Paper 90145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Wang, Xia & Zheng, Tingguo & Zhu, Yanli, 2014. "Money–output Granger causal dynamics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 192-200.
    9. Tae-Hwy Lee & Weiping Yang, 2012. "Money–Income Granger-Causality in Quantiles," Advances in Econometrics, in: 30th Anniversary Edition, pages 385-409, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
    11. Azhar Iqbal & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Money-income Link in Developing Countries: a Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 987-1014.
    12. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1998. "Unit roots and long-run causality: investigating the relationship between output, money and interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 91-112, January.
    13. Mihai Mutascu & Alexandre Sokic, 2023. "An extended wavelet approach of the money–output link in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1647-1665, April.
    14. Qureshi, Irfan, 2018. "Money Aggregates and Determinacy : A Reinterpretation of Monetary Policy During the Great Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1156, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    15. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Does money still matter for U.S. output?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 143-146, March.
    16. Lahura, Erick, 2010. "Monetary aggregates and monetary policy: an empirical assessment for Peru," Working Papers 2010-019, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    17. Philip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 1999. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 9913, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    18. Morten O. Ravn & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2005. "Markov switching causality and the money-output relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 665-683.
    19. Bernd Hayo, 1999. "Estimating A European Demand For Money," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 221-244, August.
    20. Dery, Cosmas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2021. "Interest Rates, Money, And Economic Activity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(7), pages 1842-1891, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    money output granger-causality eu-countries;

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9809009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.