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Bond Market Development, Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Rudra P. Pradhan

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Mak B. Arvin

    (Trent University)

  • Sara E. Bennett

    (Lynchburg College)

  • Mahendhiran Nair

    (Monash University Malaysia)

  • John H. Hall

    (University of Pretoria, Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper examines causal relationships between bond market development, economic growth and four other macroeconomic variables in 35 countries for the period 1993–2011. Bond market development is defined in terms of the significance and presence of public sector, private sector, and international bond issues. Additional covariates being considered are the inflation rate, the real effective exchange rate, the real interest rate, and a measure of openness to international trade. We use a panel vector auto-regression model to reveal the nature of Granger causality among these variables. Specifically, we find that bond market development and the four macroeconomic covariates may be long-run causative factors for economic growth. Thus, policy makers seeking to foster economic growth are warned to check multi-causal studies involving all these variables before setting their policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sara E. Bennett & Mahendhiran Nair & John H. Hall, 2016. "Bond Market Development, Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 175-201, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:23:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10690-016-9214-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-016-9214-x
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    8. Pradhan, Rudra & Arvin, Mak & Norman, Neville & Bahmani, Sahar, 2020. "The dynamics of bondmarket development, stockmarket development and economic growth: Evidence from the G-20 countries," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 25(49), pages 119-147.
    9. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
    10. Wahidin, Deni & Akimov, Alexandr & Roca, Eduardo, 2021. "The impact of bond market development on economic growth before and after the global financial crisis: Evidence from developed and developing countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
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    12. Noor Nahar Begum & Md Aktar Kamal, 2018. "Exploring the Key Factors Affecting Development of Bond Market in Bangladesh: An Application of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 266-275.
    13. Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    Keywords

    Bond market development; Economic growth; Other causative factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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