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The role of initial values in nonstationary fractional time series models

Author

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  • Søren Johansen

    (University of Copenhagen and CREATES)

  • Morten Ørregaard Nielsen

    (Queen?s University and CREATES)

Abstract

We consider the nonstationary fractional model $\Delta^{d}X_{t}=\varepsilon _{t}$ with $\varepsilon_{t}$ i.i.d.$(0,\sigma^{2})$ and $d>1/2$. We derive an analytical expression for the main term of the asymptotic bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of $d$ conditional on initial values, and we discuss the role of the initial values for the bias. The results are partially extended to other fractional models, and three different applications of the theoretical results are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "The role of initial values in nonstationary fractional time series models," CREATES Research Papers 2012-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-47
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "Likelihood Inference for a Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2667-2732, November.
    2. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2015. "Asymptotics for the Conditional-Sum-of-Squares Estimator in Multivariate Fractional Time-Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 154-188, March.
    3. Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber & Roland Weigand, 2013. "Long-Run Identification in a Fractionally Integrated System," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 438-450, October.
    4. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Lieberman, Offer & Marmer, Vadim, 2006. "Higher-order improvements of the parametric bootstrap for long-memory Gaussian processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 673-702, August.
    5. Juan J. Dolado & Jesus Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2002. "A Fractional Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1963-2006, September.
    6. Johansen, Søren & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2010. "Likelihood inference for a nonstationary fractional autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 51-66, September.
    7. David Byers & James Davidson & David Peel, 1997. "Modelling Political Popularity: an Analysis of Long‐range Dependence in Opinion Poll Series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 471-490, September.
    8. Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2013. "A No‐Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 77-102, January.
    9. Johansen, SØren, 2008. "A Representation Theory For A Class Of Vector Autoregressive Models For Fractional Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 651-676, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rossi, Eduardo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2013. "Long memory and tail dependence in trading volume and volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 94-112.
    2. Alexander Boca Saravia & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Presidential approval in Peru: an empirical analysis using a fractionally cointegrated VAR," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1973-2010, August.
    3. Bent Jesper Christensen & Robinson Kruse & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2013. "A unified framework for testing in the linear regression model under unknown order of fractional integration," CREATES Research Papers 2013-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Sepideh Dolatabadi & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Ke Xu, 2015. "A Fractionally Cointegrated VAR Analysis of Price Discovery in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 339-356, April.
    5. Afsin Sahin, 2019. "Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, February.
    6. Jesús Tomás Monge Moreno & Manuel Monge, 2023. "Consumer Sentiment in the United States and the Impact of Mental Disorders on Consumer Behavior—Time Trends and Persistence Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-10, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymptotic expansion; bias; conditional inference; fractional integration; initial values; likelihood inference.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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