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Long Memory and Tail dependence in Trading Volume and Volatility

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  • Eduardo Rossi

    (Dipartimento di economia politica e metodi quantitativi, University of Pavia, Italy.)

  • Paolo Santucci de Magistris

    (Dipartimento di economia politica e metodi quantitativi, University of Pavia, Italy)

Abstract

This paper investigates long-run dependencies of volatility and volume, supposing that are driven by the same informative process. Log-realized volatility and log-volume are characterized by upper and lower tail dependence, where the positive tail dependence is mainly due to the jump component. The possibility that volume and volatility are driven by a common fractionally integrated stochastic trend, as the Mixture Distribution Hypothesis prescribes, is rejected. We model the two series with a bivariate Fractionally Integrated VAR specification. The joint density is parameterized by means of with different copula functions, which provide flexibility in modeling the dependence in the extremes nd are computationally convenient. Finally, we present a simulation exercise to validate the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2009. "Long Memory and Tail dependence in Trading Volume and Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2009-30, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2009-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Kuang-Liang Chang, 2021. "A New Dynamic Mixture Copula Mechanism to Examine the Nonlinear and Asymmetric Tail Dependence Between Stock and Exchange Rate Returns," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 965-999, December.
    6. Muhammad Naeem & Hao Ji & Brunero Liseo, 2014. "Negative Return-Volume Relationship in Asian Stock Markets: Figarch-Copula Approach," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 2(2), pages 1-20.
    7. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2016. "On the risk comovements between the crude oil market and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 206-215.
    8. Davide Delle Monache & Stefano Grassi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2015. "Testing for Level Shifts in Fractionally Integrated Processes: a State Space Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2015-30, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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    11. Javier Hualde & Morten {O}rregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," Papers 2211.10235, arXiv.org.
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    13. Bravo Caro, José Manuel & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús & Vides, José Carlos, 2020. "A new way of measuring the WTI – Brent spread. Globalization, shock persistence and common trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Lux, Thomas & Alfarano, Simone, 2016. "Financial power laws: Empirical evidence, models, and mechanisms," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-18.
    15. Maria Elena Bontempi & Caterina Lucarelli, 2012. "Pre-trade transparency and trade size," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(8), pages 597-609, April.
    16. Davide Delle Monache & Stefano Grassi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2017. "Does the ARFIMA really shift?," CREATES Research Papers 2017-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Carroll, Rachael & Kearney, Colm, 2015. "Testing the mixture of distributions hypothesis on target stocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-14.
    18. Henryk Gurgul & Lukaz Lach & Tomasz Wojtowicz, 2016. "Impact of US Macroeconomic News Announcements on Intraday Causalities on Selected European Stock Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(5), pages 405-425, October.
    19. Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2020. "Another look at the implied and realised volatility relation: a copula-based approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 38-64, March.
    20. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2015. "Out-of-sample evaluation of macro announcements, linearity, long memory, heterogeneity and jumps in mini-futures markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 58-67.
    21. Piotr Gurgul & Robert Syrek, 2013. "Testing of Dependencies between Stock Returns and Trading Volume by High Frequency Data," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 11(4 (Winter), pages 353-373.
    22. Bàrbara Llacay & Gilbert Peffer, 2018. "Using realistic trading strategies in an agent-based stock market model," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 308-350, September.
    23. Yung-Ching Tseng & Wo-Chiang Lee, 2016. "Investor Sentiment and ETF Liquidity - Evidence from Asia Markets," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 1-5.
    24. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2020. "The EHTS and the persistence in the spread reconsidered. A fractional cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 124-137.
    25. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach & Tomasz Wójtowicz, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear intraday causalities in response to U.S. macroeconomic news announcements: Evidence from Central Europe," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 17(2), pages 217-240.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Realized Volatility; Trading Volume; Fractional Cointegration; Tail dependence; Copula Modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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