IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/14898.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2022

Author

Listed:
  • George A. Alessandria
  • Shafaat Y. Khan
  • Armen Khederlarian
  • Carter B. Mix
  • Kim J. Ruhl

Abstract

This paper studies the aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions in the post-pandemicperiod in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chainfrictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that dependon the source of sup- ply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, andincrease stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventoriesare already at low levels. The paper fits the model to the United States and global economies over 2020|2022 andestimates large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. The model predicts that the boost in output from reducing delayswill be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • George A. Alessandria & Shafaat Y. Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Carter B. Mix & Kim J. Ruhl, 2022. "The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14898
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag, 2021. "The dynamics of the U.S. trade balance and real exchange rate: The J curve and trade costs?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Boppart, Timo & Krusell, Per & Mitman, Kurt, 2018. "Exploiting MIT shocks in heterogeneous-agent economies: the impulse response as a numerical derivative," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 68-92.
    4. James Feyrer, 2019. "Trade and Income—Exploiting Time Series in Geography," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-35, October.
    5. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    6. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2007. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of ( S , s ) Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1165-1188, September.
    7. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joseph Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2021. "How does trade respond to anticipated tariff changes? Evidence from NAFTA," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Christoph E. Boehm & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2022. "Convex Supply Curves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(12), pages 3941-3969, December.
    10. Scott R. Baker & Stephanie Johnson & Lorenz Kueng, 2021. "Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 209-250, July.
    11. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2935-2959, December.
    12. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
    13. repec:fth:nystbu:92-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Muhammed A. Yildirim & Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," CID Working Papers 390, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    16. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2304-2339, December.
    17. Cavallo, Alberto & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2023. "What can stockouts tell us about inflation? Evidence from online micro data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Christoph E. Boehm & Aaron Flaaen & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2019. "Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 60-75, March.
    19. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    20. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    21. Boileau, Martin, 1999. "Trade in capital goods and the volatility of net exports and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 347-365, August.
    22. Sébastien Miroudot & Rainer Lanz & Alexandros Ragoussis, 2009. "Trade in Intermediate Goods and Services," OECD Trade Policy Papers 93, OECD Publishing.
    23. Jesse LaBelle & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2022. "Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(2), pages 78-91.
    24. Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "The International Elasticity Puzzle," Working Papers 08-30, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    25. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?," Working Papers 10-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2023. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe," NBER Working Papers 31790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian & Alejandro Graziano, 2024. "Unpacking Global Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 11322, CESifo.
    4. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian, 2023. "Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain," Working Papers 243, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    5. Alexandr Kopytov & Bineet Mishra & Kristoffer Nimark & Mathieu Taschereau‐Dumouchel, 2024. "Endogenous Production Networks Under Supply Chain Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1621-1659, September.
    6. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Grégory Levieuge & José Garcia-Revelo, 2024. "Revisiting 15 Years of Unusual Transatlantic Monetary Policies," Working Papers hal-04563708, HAL.
    7. ZHANG Hongyong & DOAN Thi Thanh Ha, 2023. "Global Sourcing and Firm Inventory during the Pandemic," Discussion papers 23018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Ernest Liu & Vladimir Smirnyagin & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2024. "Supply Chain Disruptions and Supplier Capital in U.S. Firms," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2402, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    2. Raphael Lafrogne-Joussier & Julien Martin & Isabelle Mejean, 2023. "Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 170-215, March.
    3. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2024. "Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Alessandria, George & Kaboski, Joseph & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2013. "Trade wedges, inventories, and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-20.
    5. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joseph Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Chris Muris & Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt & Frank Stähler, 2023. "Inventory, Sourcing, and the Effects of Trade Costs: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10253, CESifo.
    7. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    8. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2304-2339, December.
    9. George Alessandria & Horag Choi & Dan Lu, 2017. "Trade Integration and the Trade Balance in China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 633-674, August.
    10. Eppinger, Peter S. & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Krebs, Oliver & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2020. "Covid-19 shocking global value chains," Kiel Working Papers 2167, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    13. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Frank Pisch, 2020. "Managing global production: theory and evidence from just-in-time supply chains," CEP Discussion Papers dp1689, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Upstream, Downstream & Common Firm Shocks," Globalization Institute Working Papers 360, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Paul Bergin & Ling Feng & Ching-Yi Lin, 2018. "Financial Frictions and Trade Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 480-526, September.
    17. Qianxue Zhang, 2022. "The Hubei lockdown and its global impacts via supply chains," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1087-1109, September.
    18. Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2021. "How does trade respond to anticipated tariff changes? Evidence from NAFTA," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
    20. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14898. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.