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Unpacking Global Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro G. Graziano
  • Yuan Tian
  • Alejandro Graziano

Abstract

Economy-wide shocks affect demand, supply, and intermediary sectors simultaneously. We dissect the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on international trade by combining information from customs records, smartphone-based human mobility, and container ship port calls. We find that local disruptions to domestic demand reduced import quantities, while local disruptions to foreign supply and at seaports increased import prices and reduced quantities. On net, local disruptions during the pandemic were a negative supply shock, and the residual structural factors were a positive demand shock. The resulting excess import demand contributed to the rise in domestic inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian & Alejandro Graziano, 2024. "Unpacking Global Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 11322, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11322
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11322.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade; local disruptions; human mobility; shipping costs; Covid-19 pandemic; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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