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Convex supply curves

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  • Boehm, Christoph E.
  • Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya

Abstract

We provide evidence that industries' supply curves are convex. To guide our empirical analysis, we develop a model, in which capacity constraints at the plant level generate convex supply curves at the industry level. The industry's capacity utilization rate is a sufficient statistic for the supply elasticity. Using data on capacity utilization and three different instruments, we estimate the supply curve and find robust evidence for an economically sizable degree of convexity. The nonlinearity we identify has several macroeconomic implications: Responses to shocks are state-dependent, the Phillips curve is convex, and higher welfare costs of business cycles than Lucas (1987). JEL Classification: E22, E32, E52, E62, F44

Suggested Citation

  • Boehm, Christoph E. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2020. "Convex supply curves," Working Paper Series 2460, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202460
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    3. Zhen Huo & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2019. "International Comovement in the Global Production Network," NBER Working Papers 25978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Diego Comin & Javier Quintana & Tom Schmitz & Antonella Trigari, 2021. "Measuring TFP: The role of profits, adjustment costs, and capacity utilization," Working Papers 2143, Banco de España.
    5. Zhen Huo & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, "undated". "The Global Business Cycle: Measurement and Transmission," Working Papers 669, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    6. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    7. Brueckner, Marcus & Hong, Haidi & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2023. "Regulation of petrol and diesel prices and their effects on GDP growth: evidence from China," Working Papers 2023-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    8. Ghassibe, Mishel & Zanetti, Francesco, 2022. "State dependence of fiscal multipliers: the source of fluctuations matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-23.
    9. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen & Mix, Carter & Ruhl, Kim J., 2023. "The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020–2022," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2023. "Utilization-adjusted TFP across countries: Measurement and implications for international comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Ethan Ilzetzki, 2024. "Learning by Necessity: Government Demand, Capacity Constraints, and Productivity Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(8), pages 2436-2471, August.
    12. Comin, Diego & Quintana Gonzalez, Javier & Schmitz, Tom & Trigari, Antonella, 2020. "Revisiting Productivity Dynamics in Europe: A New Measure of Utilization-Adjusted TFP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Nöller, Marvin & Balleer, Almut, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-level Data," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277638, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Auerbach, Alan J. & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Murphy, Daniel, 2021. "Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2024. "The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    16. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2023. "Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 101-118.
    17. Diego A. Comin & Javier Quintana Gonzalez & Tom G. Schmitz & Antonella Trigari, 2020. "A New Measure of Utilization-adjusted TFP Growth for Europe and the United States," NBER Working Papers 28008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Brueckner, Markus & Haidi Hong, Haidi & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2023. "Effects of Government Regulation of Diesel and Petrol Prices on GDP Growth: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 122869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Balleer, Almut & Noeller, Marvin, 2023. "Monetary policy in the presence of supply constraints: Evidence from German firm-level data," Ruhr Economic Papers 1060, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    20. Almut Balleer & Marvin Noeller, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10261, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; monetary policy; slack; state-dependence; utilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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