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Recent Trends in U.S. Childbearing Intentions

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  • Caroline Sten Hartnett

    (University of South Carolina)

  • Alison Gemmill

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

The U.S. period total fertility rate has declined steadily since the Great Recession, reaching 1.73 children in 2018, the lowest level since the 1970s. This pattern could mean that current childbearing cohorts will end up with fewer children than previous cohorts, or this same pattern could be an artifact of a tempo distortion if individuals are simply postponing births they plan to eventually have. In this research note, we use data on current parity and future intended births from the 2006–2017 National Survey of Family Growth to shed light on this issue. We find that total intended parity declined (from 2.26 in 2006–2010 to 2.16 children in 2013–2017), and the proportion intending to remain childless increased slightly. Decomposition indicates that the decline was not due to changes in population composition but rather changes in the subgroups’ rates themselves. The decline in intended parity is particularly notable at young ages and among those who are Hispanic. These results indicate that although tempo distortion is likely an important contributor to the decline in TFR, it is not the sole explanation: U.S. individuals are intending to have fewer children than their immediate predecessors, which may translate into a decline in cohort completed parity. However, the change in intended parity is modest, and average intended parity remains above two children.

Suggested Citation

  • Caroline Sten Hartnett & Alison Gemmill, 2020. "Recent Trends in U.S. Childbearing Intentions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2035-2045, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:57:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-020-00929-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00929-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martha J. Bailey & Melanie Guldi & Brad J. Hershbein, 2014. "Is There a Case for a "Second Demographic Transition"? Three Distinctive Features of the Post-1960 U.S. Fertility Decline," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital in History: The American Record, pages 273-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. van Raalte, Alyson A & Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Nepomuceno, Marília & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2022. "The dangers of drawing cohort profiles from period data: a research note," SocArXiv frkcw, Center for Open Science.
    2. Katie Genadek & Joshua Sanders & Amanda Stevenson, 2022. "Measuring US fertility using administrative data from the Census Bureau," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(2), pages 37-58.
    3. Wendy D. Manning & Karen Benjamin Guzzo & Monica A. Longmore & Peggy C. Giordano, 2022. "Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 261-284.
    4. Lawrence L. Wu & Nicholas D. E. Mark, 2023. "Is US Fertility now Below Replacement? Evidence from Period vs. Cohort Trends," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(5), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Alyson van Raalte & Ugofilippo Basellini & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & Marília R. Nepomuceno & Mikko Myrskylä, 2022. "The dangers of drawing cohort profiles from period data: a research note," Working Papers ayadh-ohbnm4x3q6cor1, French Institute for Demographic Studies.

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