IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/24607.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Karen Clay
  • Margarita Portnykh
  • Edson Severnini

Abstract

Using U.S county level data on lead in air for 1978-1988, this paper provides the first causal evidence on the effects of airborne lead exposure on the general fertility rate and the completed fertility rate in the broad population. Instrumental variable estimates show the increase in completed fertility implied by the average observed decrease in airborne lead is 0.14 children per woman, which is 6.4 percent of mean fertility. To explore the current relevance of our findings, we estimate the effect of lead historically accumulated in topsoil on fertility in the 2000s. The results suggest that lead may continue to impair fertility today, both in the United States and in other countries that have significant amounts of lead in topsoil.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Clay & Margarita Portnykh & Edson Severnini, 2018. "Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility," NBER Working Papers 24607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24607
    Note: CH DEV EEE EH
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w24607.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Werner Troesken, 2008. "The Great Lead Water Pipe Disaster," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262701251, April.
    2. Kenneth Y. Chay & Michael Greenstone, 2003. "The Impact of Air Pollution on Infant Mortality: Evidence from Geographic Variation in Pollution Shocks Induced by a Recession," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 1121-1167.
    3. Janet Currie & Joshua Graff Zivin & Jamie Mullins & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "What Do We Know About Short- and Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Pollution?," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 217-247, October.
    4. Guy Michaels, 2008. "The Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skill: Evidence from the Interstate Highway System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 683-701, November.
    5. Gamper-Rabindran, Shanti & Timmins, Christopher, 2013. "Does cleanup of hazardous waste sites raise housing values? Evidence of spatially localized benefits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 345-360.
    6. Martha J. Bailey, 2012. "Reexamining the Impact of Family Planning Programs on US Fertility: Evidence from the War on Poverty and the Early Years of Title X," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 62-97, April.
    7. Leah Platt Boustan & Carola Frydman & Robert A. Margo, 2014. "Human Capital in History: The American Record," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bous12-1.
    8. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2017. "Defensive Investments and the Demand for Air Quality: Evidence from the NOx Budget Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2958-2989, October.
    9. Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, 2015. "Lead Exposure And Behavior: Effects On Antisocial And Risky Behavior Among Children And Adolescents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(3), pages 1580-1605, July.
    10. Janet Currie & Lucas Davis & Michael Greenstone & Reed Walker, 2015. "Environmental Health Risks and Housing Values: Evidence from 1,600 Toxic Plant Openings and Closings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 678-709, February.
    11. Michael Greenstone & Justin Gallagher, 2008. "Does Hazardous Waste Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market and the Superfund Program," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 951-1003.
    12. Martha J. Bailey, 2010. ""Momma's Got the Pill": How Anthony Comstock and Griswold v. Connecticut Shaped US Childbearing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 98-129, March.
    13. Lindbohm, M.-L. & Hemminki, K. & Bonhomme, M.G. & Anttila, A. & Rantala, K. & Heikkila, P. & Rosenberg, M.J., 1991. "Effects of paternal occupational exposure on spontaneous abortions," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 81(8), pages 1029-1033.
    14. Martha J. Bailey & Melanie Guldi & Brad J. Hershbein, 2014. "Is There a Case for a "Second Demographic Transition"? Three Distinctive Features of the Post-1960 U.S. Fertility Decline," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital in History: The American Record, pages 273-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Grönqvist, Hans & Nilsson, J Peter & Robling, Per-Olof, 2017. "Early lead exposure and outcomes in adulthood," Working Paper Series 2017:4, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    16. Tomás Rau & Sergio Urzúa & Loreto Reyes, 2015. "Early Exposure to Hazardous Waste and Academic Achievement: Evidence from a Case of Environmental Negligence," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(4), pages 527-563.
    17. Matthew Neidell, 2009. "Information, Avoidance Behavior, and Health: The Effect of Ozone on Asthma Hospitalizations," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    18. Anna Aizer & Janet Currie, 2019. "Lead and Juvenile Delinquency: New Evidence from Linked Birth, School, and Juvenile Detention Records," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 575-587, October.
    19. Janet Currie & Matthew Neidell, 2005. "Air Pollution and Infant Health: What Can We Learn from California's Recent Experience?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 1003-1030.
    20. Stephen B. Billings & Kevin T. Schnepel, 2018. "Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 315-344, July.
    21. Daniel S. Grossman & David J.G. Slutsky, 2017. "The Effect of an Increase in Lead in the Water System on Fertility and Birth Outcomes: The Case of Flint, Michigan," Working Papers 17-25, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    22. Kenneth Y. Chay & Michael Greenstone, 2005. "Does Air Quality Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 376-424, April.
    23. H. Spencer Banzhaf & Randall P. Walsh, 2008. "Do People Vote with Their Feet? An Empirical Test of Tiebout," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 843-863, June.
    24. Janet Currie & Reed Walker, 2011. "Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 65-90, January.
    25. Martha J. Bailey, 2013. "Fifty Years of Family Planning: New Evidence on the Long-Run Effects of Increasing Access to Contraception," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 341-409.
    26. Reyes Jessica Wolpaw, 2007. "Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-43, October.
    27. Neidell, Matthew J., 2004. "Air pollution, health, and socio-economic status: the effect of outdoor air quality on childhood asthma," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1209-1236, November.
    28. Daniel S. Grossman & David J.G. Slusky, 2017. "The Effect of an Increase in Lead in the Water System on Fertility and Birth Outcomes: The Case of Flint, Michigan," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201703, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2017.
    29. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
    30. Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, 2007. "Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime," NBER Working Papers 13097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Claudia Persico & David Figlio & Jeffrey Roth, 2016. "Inequality Before Birth: The Developmental Consequences of Environmental Toxicants," NBER Working Papers 22263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel S. Grossman & David J.G. Slusky, 2019. "The Impact of the Flint Water Crisis on Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(6), pages 2005-2031, December.
    2. Clay, Karen & Portnykh, Margarita & Severnini, Edson, 2019. "The legacy lead deposition in soils and its impact on cognitive function in preschool-aged children in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 181-192.
    3. Alex Hollingsworth & Mike Huang & Ivan J. Rudik & Nicholas J. Sanders, 2020. "A Thousand Cuts: Cumulative Lead Exposure Reduces Academic Achievement," NBER Working Papers 28250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jonathan Colmer & John Voorheis, 2020. "The Grandkids Aren't Alright: The Intergenerational Effects of Prenatal Pollution Exposure," Working Papers 20-36, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Alex Hollingsworth & Ivan Rudik, 2021. "The Effect of Leaded Gasoline on Elderly Mortality: Evidence from Regulatory Exemptions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 345-373, August.
    6. Dave, Dhaval M. & Yang, Muzhe, 2022. "Lead in drinking water and birth outcomes: A tale of two water treatment plants," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Karen Clay & Alex Hollingsworth & Edson Severnini, 2024. "The Impact of Lead Exposure on Fertility, Infant Mortality, and Infant Birth Outcomes," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(2), pages 301-320.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clay, Karen & Portnykh, Margarita & Severnini, Edson, 2019. "The legacy lead deposition in soils and its impact on cognitive function in preschool-aged children in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 181-192.
    2. Gazze, Ludovica, 2021. "The price and allocation effects of targeted mandates: Evidence from lead hazards," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Guidetti, Bruna & Pereda, Paula & Severnini, Edson R., 2020. "Health Shocks under Hospital Capacity Constraint: Evidence from Air Pollution in Sao Paulo, Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 13211, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Andrea La Nauze & Edson R. Severnini, 2021. "Air Pollution and Adult Cognition: Evidence from Brain Training," NBER Working Papers 28785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Karen Clay & Joshua Lewis & Edson Severnini, 2016. "Canary in a Coal Mine: Infant Mortality, Property Values, and Tradeoffs Associated with Mid-20th Century Air Pollution," NBER Working Papers 22155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Nicholas J. Sanders, 2012. "What Doesn’t Kill You Makes You Weaker: Prenatal Pollution Exposure and Educational Outcomes," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(3), pages 826-850.
    7. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2013. "Environment, Health, and Human Capital," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 689-730, September.
    8. Alessandro Palma & Inna Petrunyk & Daniela Vuri, 2022. "Prenatal air pollution exposure and neonatal health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 729-759, May.
    9. Dede Long & David Lewis & Christian Langpap, 2021. "Negative Traffic Externalities and Infant Health: The Role of Income Heterogeneity and Residential Sorting," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(3), pages 637-674, November.
    10. Sanders, Nicholas J. & Stoecker, Charles, 2015. "Where have all the young men gone? Using sex ratios to measure fetal death rates," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
    11. Daniel S. Grossman & David J.G. Slutsky, 2017. "The Effect of an Increase in Lead in the Water System on Fertility and Birth Outcomes: The Case of Flint, Michigan," Working Papers 17-25, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    12. Daniel S. Grossman & David J.G. Slusky, 2017. "The Effect of an Increase in Lead in the Water System on Fertility and Birth Outcomes: The Case of Flint, Michigan," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201703, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2017.
    13. Daniel S. Grossman & David J.G. Slusky, 2019. "The Impact of the Flint Water Crisis on Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(6), pages 2005-2031, December.
    14. Deokrye Baek & Duha T. Altindag & Naci Mocan, 2015. "Chinese Yellow Dust and Korean Infant Health," NBER Working Papers 21613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Bruna Morais Guidetti & Paula Carvalho Pereda, Edson Roberto Severnini, 2021. "Health Shocks under Hospital Capacity Constraints: Evidence from Air Pollution in São Paulo, Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    16. Kang, Cheolmin & Ota, Mitsuru & Ushijima, Koichi, 2024. "Benefits of diesel emission regulations: Evidence from the World's largest low emission zone," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    17. Yihsu Chen & Alexander Whalley, 2012. "Green Infrastructure: The Effects of Urban Rail Transit on Air Quality," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 58-97, February.
    18. Kathrine Graevenitz & Daniel Römer & Alexander Rohlf, 2018. "The Effect of Emission Information on Housing Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(1), pages 23-74, January.
    19. Christopher Hansman & Jonas Hjort & Gianmarco León, 2015. "Firm's response and unintended health consequences of industrial regulations," Economics Working Papers 1469, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Blundell, Wesley & Kokoza, Anatolii, 2022. "Natural gas flaring, respiratory health, and distributional effects," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.