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The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Britain

In: Safety Nets and Benefit Dependence

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  • Lorenzo Cappellari
  • Stephen P. Jenkins

Abstract

We analyse the dynamics of social assistance benefit (SA) receipt among working-age adults in Britain between 1991 and 2005. The decline in the annual SA receipt rate was driven by a decline in the SA entry rate rather than by the SA exit rate (which also declined). We examine the determinants of these trends using a multivariate dynamic random effects probit model of SA receipt probabilities applied to British Household Panel Survey data. We show how the model may be used to derive year-by-year predictions of aggregate SA entry, exit and receipt rates. The analysis highlights the importance of the decline in the unemployment rate over the period and other changes in the socio-economic environment including two reforms to the income maintenance system in the 1990s and also illustrates the effects of self-selection (‘creaming’) on observed and unobserved characteristics.

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  • Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2014. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Britain," Research in Labor Economics, in: Safety Nets and Benefit Dependence, volume 39, pages 41-79, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:rleczz:s0147-912120140000039000
    DOI: 10.1108/S0147-912120140000039000
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2008. "Estimating low pay transition probabilities accounting for endogenous selection mechanisms," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(2), pages 165-186, April.
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    10. Paul Gregg & Susan Harkness & Sarah Smith, 2009. "Welfare Reform and Lone Parents in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages 38-65, February.
    11. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
    12. Mark B. Stewart, 2002. "The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low Pay," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Benito & Jumana Saleheen, 2013. "Labour Supply as a Buffer: Evidence from UK Households," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(320), pages 698-720, October.
    2. Tue Gørgens & Dean Robert Hyslop, 2018. "The Specification of Dynamic Discrete-Time Two-State Panel Data Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. M. Padmaja & Subash Sasidharan, 2017. "Sunk Costs, Firm Heterogeneity, Export Market Entry and Exit: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(2), pages 367-393, June.
    4. Herwig Immervoll & Stephen P. Jenkins & Sebastian Königs, 2015. "Are Recipients of Social Assistance 'Benefit Dependent'?: Concepts, Measurement and Results for Selected Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 162, OECD Publishing.
    5. Peter R. Mueser & Colleen M. Heflin, 2013. "Aid to Jobless Workers in Florida in the Face of the Great Recession: The Interaction of Unemployment Insurance and the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program," Working Papers 1318, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    6. Coban, Mustafa, 2017. "Wage mobility, wage inequality, and tasks: Empirical evidence from Germany, 1984-2014," Discussion Paper Series 139, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    7. Stephen Drinkwater & Catherine Robinson, 2013. "Welfare participation by immigrants in the UK," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(2), pages 100-112, May.
    8. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.
    9. Sebastian Königs, 2013. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Germany: State Dependence Before and After the Hartz Reforms," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
    10. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schank, Thorsten & Schwarz, Stefan, 2021. "Do Supplementary Jobs for Welfare Recipients Increase the Chance of Welfare Exit? Evidence from Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 14268, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Andrén, Daniela & Andrén, Thomas, 2013. "State dependence in Swedish social assistance in the 1990s: What happened to those who were single before the recession?," Working Papers 2013:10, Örebro University, School of Business.
    12. H. Xavier Jara & Katrin Gasior & Mattia Makovec, 2020. "Work Incentives at the Extensive and Intensive Margin in Europe: The Role of Taxes, Benefits and Population Characteristics," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 705-778, November.
    13. Regina T. Riphahn & Christoph Wunder, 2016. "State dependence in welfare receipt: transitions before and after a reform," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1303-1329, June.
    14. Thomas Andrén & Daniela Andrén, 2013. "Never give up? The persistence of welfare participation in Sweden," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    15. Wunder, Christoph & Riphahn, Regina, 2013. "Welfare transitions before and after reforms of the German welfare system," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79715, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Nicolas Hérault & Guyonne Kalb & Rezida Zakirova, 2011. "Dynamics of Household Joblessness: Evidence from Australian Micro-Data 2001–2007," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n10, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    17. M. Padmaja & Subash Sasidharan, 2021. "Financing constraints and exports: evidence from India," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 118-145, January.
    18. Andrén, Daniela & Andrén, Thomas, 2013. "State dependence in Swedish social assistance," Working Papers 2013:7, Örebro University, School of Business.
    19. Drescher, Katharina & Janzen, Benedikt, 2021. "Determinants, persistence, and dynamics of energy poverty: An empirical assessment using German household survey data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Sinem H. Ayhan & Selin Pelek, 2020. "State Dependence in Welfare Benefits in a Non‐Welfare Context," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 711-735, September.
    21. Sebastian Königs, 2015. "Micro-level dynamics of social assistance receipt. Evidence from 4 European countries," Discussion Papers 797, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    22. Ruth McAreavey & David L. Brown, 2019. "Comparative analysis of rural poverty and inequality in the UK and the US," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social assistance benefits; welfare benefits; panel data; dynamic self-selection; dynamic random effects probit; I38; C23; C53;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions

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