IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp288.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling Low Income Transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Cappellari
  • Stephen P. Jenkins

Abstract

We examine the determinants of low income transitions using first-order Markov models that control for initial conditions effects (those found to be poor in the base year may be a nonrandom sample) and for attrition (panel retention may also be non-random). Our econometric model is a form of endogeneous switching regression, and is fitted using simulated maximum likelihood methods. The estimates, derived from British panel data for the 1990s, indicate that there is substantial genuine state dependence in poverty. We also provide estimates of low income transition rates and lengths of poverty and non-poverty spells for persons of different types.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2002. "Modelling Low Income Transitions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 288, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.38544.de/dp288.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lillard, Lee A & Willis, Robert J, 1978. "Dynamic Aspects of Earning Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 985-1012, September.
    2. Atkinson, A B, 1987. "On the Measurement of Poverty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 749-764, July.
    3. Lorenzo Cappellari, 2007. "Earnings mobility among Italian low-paid workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 465-482, April.
    4. Francesco Devicienti, 2011. "Estimating poverty persistence in Britain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 657-686, May.
    5. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
    6. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    7. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
    8. Sloane, P J & Theodossiou, I, 1996. "Earnings Mobility, Family Income and Low Pay," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 657-666, May.
    9. Mark B. Stewart & Joanna K. Swaffield, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February.
    10. Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom, 1998. "Attrition in Panel Survey Data and the Estimation of Multi-State Labor Market Models," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 458-478.
    11. Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Climbing out of Poverty, Falling Back in: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty Over Multiple Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 557-588.
    12. Stephen P. Jenkins, 2000. "Modelling household income dynamics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(4), pages 529-567.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    2. Maes, Marjan, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly: true or spurious?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-24, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Lorenzo Cappellari, 2007. "Earnings mobility among Italian low-paid workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 465-482, April.
    4. Sara Ayllón, 2013. "Understanding poverty persistence in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 201-233, June.
    5. Francesco Devicienti, 2011. "Estimating poverty persistence in Britain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 657-686, May.
    6. Tue Gørgens & Dean Robert Hyslop, 2018. "The Specification of Dynamic Discrete-Time Two-State Panel Data Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Arnstein Aassve & Simon Burgess & Matt Dickson & Carol Propper, 2005. "Modelling Poverty by not Modelling Poverty: An Application of a Simultaneous Hazards Approach to the UK," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 05/134, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    8. Ambra Poggi, 2007. "Does persistence of social exclusion exist in Spain?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 5(1), pages 53-72, April.
    9. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling Low Pay Transition Probabilities, Accounting for Panel Attrition, Non-Response, and Initial Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 1232, CESifo.
    10. Francesco Devicienti & Valentina Gualtieri, 2007. "The Dynamics and Persistence of Poverty: Evidence from Italy," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 63, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    11. Bigsten, Arne & Shimeles, Abebe, 2008. "Poverty Transition and Persistence in Ethiopia: 1994-2004," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1559-1584, September.
    12. FUSCO Alessio & ISLAM Nizamul, 2012. "Understanding the drivers of low income transitions in Luxembourg," LISER Working Paper Series 2012-31, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    13. FAYE Ousmane & ISLAM Nizamul & ZULU Eliya, 2011. "Poverty dynamics in Nairobi's slums: testing for true state dependence and heterogeneity effects," LISER Working Paper Series 2011-56, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    14. Dimitris Pavlopoulos & Ruud Muffels & Jeroen K. Vermunt, 2009. "Training and Low‐pay Mobility: The Case of the UK and the Netherlands," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(s1), pages 37-59, March.
    15. Francesco Devicienti & Valentina Gualtieri & Mariacristina Rossi, 2014. "The Persistence Of Income Poverty And Lifestyle Deprivation: Evidence From Italy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 246-278, July.
    16. Martin Biewen, 2005. "The Covariance Structure of East and West German Incomes and its Implications for the Persistence of Poverty and Inequality," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(4), pages 445-469, November.
    17. Prieto Suarez, Joaquin, 2021. "Poverty traps and affluence shields: modelling the persistence of income position in Chile," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110719, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10594 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Sarkar, Sudipa & Sahoo, Soham & Klasen, Stephan, 2019. "Employment transitions of women in India: A panel analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 291-309.
    20. Sara Ayllón Gatnau, 2009. "Modelling state dependence and feedback effects between poverty, employment and parental home emancipation among European youth," Economics Working Papers 1180, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    21. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    'Modelling low income transitions';

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.