The promotion dynamics of American executives

We formulate static and dynamic empirical models of promotion where the current promotion probability depends on the hierarchical level in the firm, individual human capital, unobserved individual specific attributes, time-varying firm-specific variables, as well as endogenous past promotion histories (in the dynamic version). Within the static versions, we investigate the relative influence of the key determinants of promotions and how these influences vary by hierarchical levels. In the dynamic version of the model, we examine the causal effect of past speed of promotion on promotion outcomes. The model is fit on an eight-year panel of 30,000 American executives employed in more than 300 different firms. The stochastic process generating promotions may be viewed as a series of promotion probabilities which become smaller as an individual moves up in the hierarchy and which are primarily explained by unobserved heterogeneity and promotion opportunities. Firm variables and observed human capital variables (age, tenure, and education) play a surprisingly small role. We also find that, conditional on unobservables, the promotion probability is only enhanced by the speed of promotion achieved in the past (a structural fast track effect) for a subset of the population and is negative for the majority. In general, the magnitude of the individual-specific effect of past speed of promotion is inversely related to schooling, tenure, and hierarchical level.