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Fluctuations of the Real Estate Market: Microeconomic foundations and macroeconomic consequences

Author

Listed:
  • Sven Rady
  • Volker Rußig

Abstract

Die Dynamik des Wohnimmobilienmarktes wird insbesondere durch die Veränderung der Einkommen junger Haushalte bestimmt. Zu diesem Ergebnis kommt eine neue Studie des ifo Instituts über "Fluktuationen des Wohnimmobilienmarktes", in der ein für die USA und Großbritannien entwickelter mikroökonomisch fundierter Modellansatz auf die deutschen Verhältnisse übertragen und mit eigens hierfür zusammengestellten Daten überprüft wurde. Den Einfluss des Einkommens junger Haushalte erklären die Autoren mit deren Kreditbeschränkung. Steigt das Haushaltseinkommen, lockert sich die Kreditbeschränkung, und die Nachfrage nach preiswerten Einstiegsimmobilien steigt. Der Preisanstieg konzentriert sich zunächst auf das untere Ende der "Eigentumsleiter", doch wirkt er sich über eine Substitutionskette auch auf die Preise größerer und höherwertiger Wohnimmobilien aus.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Rady & Volker Rußig, 2004. "Fluctuations of the Real Estate Market: Microeconomic foundations and macroeconomic consequences," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 23.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:23
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifo_Forschungsberichte_23.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erich Gluch, 2002. "Baukosten und Bauhandwerk im internationalen Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(06), pages 22-29, March.
    2. Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Tax Incentives and House Price Volatility in the Euro Area: Theory and Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 101, pages 29-45.
    3. Francois Ortalo-Magne & Sven Rady, 1998. "Housing Market Fluctuations in a Life-Cycle Economy with Credit Constraints," Finance 9810003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Boom in, bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 755-766, April.
    5. Elke Holst & Dean R. Lillard & Thomas A. DiPrete, 2001. "Proceedings of the 2000 Fourth International Conference of German Socio-Economic Panel Study Users (GSOEP 2000): Editorial Introduction," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(1), pages 5-6.
    6. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    7. Rady, Sven & Ortalo-Magné, François, 2001. "Housing Market Dynamics," Discussion Papers in Economics 20, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    8. Ludwig Alexander & Sløk Torsten, 2004. "The Relationship between Stock Prices, House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, March.
    9. Sven Rady, 2002. "Homeownership: Low household mobility, volatile housing prices, high income dispersion," FMG Discussion Papers dp432, Financial Markets Group.
    10. SOEP Group, 2001. "The German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) after More than 15 Years: Overview," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(1), pages 7-14.
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    Cited by:

    1. von der Lippe, Peter & Breuer, Claus Christian, 2009. "Konzept für ein wirtschaftliches System periodischer regionaler Preisvergleiche: Datengewinnung über Mieten und Immobilienpreise," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 174, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
    2. Volker Rußig & Ludwig Dorffmeister, 2005. "Dreizehn Jahreseinkommen für ein Reihenhaus - Zu Niveau und Entwicklung der Wohnimmobilienpreise," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(13), pages 20-30, July.
    3. Volker Rußig, 2004. "Wohnungsneubau in Europa: Nach kurzer Erholung erneut leichter Rückgang," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(13), pages 22-28, July.
    4. Volker Rußig, 2004. "Allmähliche Erholung in Europas Bauwirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(15), pages 22-29, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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