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Housing Market Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Rady, Sven
  • Ortalo-Magné, François

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic theory of housing market fluctuations. It develops a life-cycle model where households are heterogeneous with respect to income and preferences, and mortgage lending is restricted by a down-payment requirement. The market interaction of young credit-constrained households with older or richer unconstrained households generates the following results. (1) Current income of young credit-constrained households affects housing prices independently of aggregate income. (2) Housing prices and the number of housing transactions are positively correlated. (3) Housing prices over-react to income shocks. (4) A relaxation of the down-payment constraint triggers a boom-bust cycle. These results are consistent with patterns observed in the US and the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Rady, Sven & Ortalo-Magné, François, 2001. "Housing Market Dynamics," Discussion Papers in Economics 20, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:20
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    File URL: https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20/1/0109_rady.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    2. Gordon W. Crawford & Michael C. Fratantoni, 2003. "Assessing the Forecasting Performance of Regime‐Switching, ARIMA and GARCH Models of House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 223-243, June.
    3. Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Housing And The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 751-784, August.
    4. Yoshida, Jiro, 2007. "Technology Shocks and Asset Price Dynamics: The Role of Housing in General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 6271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
    6. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España.
    7. Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Working Papers 0307, Banco de España.
    8. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    9. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2006. "House prices and rents in Spain: does the discount factor matter?," Working Papers 0609, Banco de España.
    10. Jin, Yi & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2004. "Residential investment and house prices in a multi-sector monetary business cycle model," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 268-286, December.
    11. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2006. "House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-388, June.
    12. Caterina Mendicino, 2006. "Credit Market and Macroeconomic Volatility," 2006 Meeting Papers 317, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2004. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Transaction Frequency of Institutional Commercial Real Estate Investment Property," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 239-264, June.
    14. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Sven Rady & Volker Rußig, 2004. "Fluctuations of the Real Estate Market: Microeconomic foundations and macroeconomic consequences," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 23.
    16. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2004. "Housing transactions and macroeconomic fluctuations: a case study of England and Wales," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 287-303, December.
    17. Ivan Jaccard, 2007. "Real Estate Prices in Production Economies," 2007 Meeting Papers 645, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Lee, Nai Jia & Ong, Seow Eng, 2005. "Upward mobility, house price volatility, and housing equity," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 127-146, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing Demand ; Income Fluctuations ; Overlapping Generations ; Collateral Constraint;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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