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Why foresight? The impact of resource consumption and technology on the ability to foresee the future

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  • Ciprian I. Turturean

    (“Al. I. Cuza” University of Iasi, Romania)

Abstract

In this article we attempt at providing evolution of the resource consumption (RC) which meets the needs of a modern society. In analyzing the impact of resources consumption and technologies to meets the needs, over the possibility of anticipating the future is necessary to establish patterns based on past information. On the those information, we can say that RC evolution between the ? and ? moments follows a logistic curve. Based on the graphic representation of the RC evolution, we can identify four different phases, with specific characteristics. Each phase will be the basis for building a pattern of RC evolution. For each of the four patterns we analytically present the risks of performing an exercise of future’s anticipation. The analysis indicates that currently, the forecasts lose representativeness and becomes less important compared with the foresight. The foresight, through its features, answers much better the needs to anticipate the future evolution of the society, compared to the forecast. Foresight exercises are offensive compared to the defensive nature of forecast exercises. The foresight exercise specialist is not just a spectator to the evolution of the phenomenon, as in the forecast’s case, but is involved in making and implementing decisions. Foresight exercises, although not able to generate accurate projections of the future, will help to correlate the current technologies with the future needs of society

Suggested Citation

  • Ciprian I. Turturean, 2011. "Why foresight? The impact of resource consumption and technology on the ability to foresee the future," THE YEARBOOK OF THE "GH. ZANE" INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCHES, Gheorghe Zane Institute for Economic and Social Research ( from THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY, JASSY BRANCH), vol. 20(1), pages 79-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:zan:ygzier:v:20:y:2011:i:1:p:79-85
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kerstin Cuhls, 2003. "From forecasting to foresight processes-new participative foresight activities in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 93-111.
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