IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v92y2015icp53-68.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transitions in biofuel technologies: An appraisal of the social impacts of cellulosic ethanol using the Delphi method

Author

Listed:
  • Ribeiro, Barbara E.
  • Quintanilla, Miguel A.

Abstract

The sustainability of biofuels produced from food crops has become a focus of public and scientific scrutiny in the past few years. In the case of ethanol production, advanced technologies aim at avoiding controversy by using instead cellulosic biomass contained in wastes, residues and dedicated energy crops. However, despite the positive expectations that drive the development of the so-called “cellulosic” ethanol, sustainability challenges remain to be elucidated. Expecting to contribute to closing the gap in the field of the social assessment of biofuels, this paper reports and analyses the results of a Delphi survey that explored the perception of biofuel experts from different countries on potential social impacts of cellulosic ethanol. The complexity of appraising impacts emerges as one important conclusion of the study along with the realisation that these will be context-specific. Except for the case of municipal solid waste used as feedstock, such a technological transition might not be able to ameliorate the issues already faced by conventional ethanol, especially when production is based in poorer countries. This is because impacts of cellulosic ethanol depend upon both the technical dimension of its production and the socio-political context of locations where production might take place.

Suggested Citation

  • Ribeiro, Barbara E. & Quintanilla, Miguel A., 2015. "Transitions in biofuel technologies: An appraisal of the social impacts of cellulosic ethanol using the Delphi method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 53-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:92:y:2015:i:c:p:53-68
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.11.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514003096
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.11.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Becker, Henk A., 2001. "Social impact assessment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 311-321, January.
    2. Ribeiro, Barbara Esteves, 2013. "Beyond commonplace biofuels: Social aspects of ethanol," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 355-362.
    3. Swinton, Scott M. & Babcock, Bruce A. & James, Laura K. & Bandaru, Varaprasad, 2011. "Higher US crop prices trigger little area expansion so marginal land for biofuel crops is limited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5254-5258, September.
    4. González-García, Sara & Moreira, M. Teresa & Feijoo, Gumersindo, 2010. "Comparative environmental performance of lignocellulosic ethanol from different feedstocks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(7), pages 2077-2085, September.
    5. Buytaert, V. & Muys, B. & Devriendt, N. & Pelkmans, L. & Kretzschmar, J.G. & Samson, R., 2011. "Towards integrated sustainability assessment for energetic use of biomass: A state of the art evaluation of assessment tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3918-3933.
    6. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    7. Naik, S.N. & Goud, Vaibhav V. & Rout, Prasant K. & Dalai, Ajay K., 2010. "Production of first and second generation biofuels: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 578-597, February.
    8. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
    9. Ajanovic, Amela, 2011. "Biofuels versus food production: Does biofuels production increase food prices?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 2070-2076.
    10. Kerstin Cuhls, 2003. "From forecasting to foresight processes-new participative foresight activities in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 93-111.
    11. Philip Boucher & Robert Smith & Kate Millar, 2014. "Biofuels under the spotlight: The state of assessment and potential for integration," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 283-293.
    12. Dovers, Stephen R., 1995. "A framework for scaling and framing policy problems in sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 93-106, February.
    13. Verbruggen, Aviel, 2013. "Revocability and reversibility in societal decision-making," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 20-27.
    14. Mohr, Alison & Raman, Sujatha, 2013. "Lessons from first generation biofuels and implications for the sustainability appraisal of second generation biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 114-122.
    15. Swinton, Scott & Babcock, Bruce A. & James, Laura K. & Bandaru, Varaprasad, 2011. "Higher U.S. Crop Prices Trigger Little Area Expansion So Marginal Land for Biofuels is Limited," Staff General Research Papers Archive 34897, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Shrestha, Ashish, 2011. "How much hope should we have for biofuels?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 2055-2069.
    17. Shortall, O.K., 2013. "“Marginal land” for energy crops: Exploring definitions and embedded assumptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-27.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kwon, Heeyeul & Kim, Jieun & Park, Yongtae, 2017. "Applying LSA text mining technique in envisioning social impacts of emerging technologies: The case of drone technology," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 60, pages 15-28.
    2. Tsai, Yuan-Hui & Lin, Chieh-Peng & Ma, Hwa-Chun & Wang, Rong-Tsu, 2015. "Modeling corporate social performance and job pursuit intention: Forecasting the job change of professionals in technology industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 14-21.
    3. Alon, Ido & Guimón, José & Urbanos-Garrido, Rosa, 2019. "What to expect from assisted reproductive technologies? Experts' forecasts for the next two decades," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Dohnal, Mirko, 2016. "Complex biofuels related scenarios generated by qualitative reasoning under severe information shortages: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 676-684.
    5. Asada, Raphael & Cardellini, Giuseppe & Mair-Bauernfeind, Claudia & Wenger, Julia & Haas, Verena & Holzer, Daniel & Stern, Tobias, 2020. "Effective bioeconomy? a MRIO-based socioeconomic and environmental impact assessment of generic sectoral innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. von Briel, Frederik, 2018. "The future of omnichannel retail: A four-stage Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 217-229.
    7. Pauget, Bertrand & Tobelem, Jean-Michel & Bootz, Jean-Philippe, 2021. "The future of French museums in 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    8. Collotta, M. & Champagne, P. & Tomasoni, G. & Alberti, M. & Busi, L. & Mabee, W., 2019. "Critical indicators of sustainability for biofuels: An analysis through a life cycle sustainabilty assessment perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    9. Linares, Ian Marques Porto & De Paulo, Alex Fabianne & Porto, Geciane Silveira, 2019. "Patent-based network analysis to understand technological innovation pathways and trends," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Ribeiro, Barbara & Shapira, Philip, 2019. "Anticipating governance challenges in synthetic biology: Insights from biosynthetic menthol," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 311-320.
    11. Befort, N., 2020. "Going beyond definitions to understand tensions within the bioeconomy: The contribution of sociotechnical regimes to contested fields," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Holly Jean Buck, 2016. "Rapid scale-up of negative emissions technologies: social barriers and social implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 155-167, November.
    13. Lorenzo Di Lucia & Barbara Ribeiro, 2018. "Enacting Responsibilities in Landscape Design: The Case of Advanced Biofuels," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-15, November.
    14. Zhu, Lin & Cunningham, Scott W., 2022. "Unveiling the knowledge structure of technological forecasting and social change (1969–2020) through an NMF-based hierarchical topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wilson, P. & Glithero, N.J. & Ramsden, S.J., 2014. "Prospects for dedicated energy crop production and attitudes towards agricultural straw use: The case of livestock farmers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 101-110.
    2. Lorenzo Di Lucia & Barbara Ribeiro, 2018. "Enacting Responsibilities in Landscape Design: The Case of Advanced Biofuels," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-15, November.
    3. Mellor, P. & Lord, R.A. & João, E. & Thomas, R. & Hursthouse, A., 2021. "Identifying non-agricultural marginal lands as a route to sustainable bioenergy provision - A review and holistic definition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Oumer, A.N. & Hasan, M.M. & Baheta, Aklilu Tesfamichael & Mamat, Rizalman & Abdullah, A.A., 2018. "Bio-based liquid fuels as a source of renewable energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 82-98.
    5. De Laporte, Aaron V. & Ripplinger, David G., 2019. "The effects of site selection, opportunity costs and transportation costs on bioethanol production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 73-82.
    6. Holland, R.A. & Eigenbrod, F. & Muggeridge, A. & Brown, G. & Clarke, D. & Taylor, G., 2015. "A synthesis of the ecosystem services impact of second generation bioenergy crop production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 30-40.
    7. Prianto Budi Saptono & Gustofan Mahmud & Intan Pratiwi & Dwi Purwanto & Ismail Khozen & Muhamad Akbar Aditama & Siti Khodijah & Maria Eurelia Wayan & Rina Yuliastuty Asmara & Ferry Jie, 2023. "Development of Climate-Related Disclosure Indicators for Application in Indonesia: A Delphi Method Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-25, July.
    8. Di Zio, Simone & Bolzan, Mario & Marozzi, Marco, 2021. "Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Bergthorson, Jeffrey M. & Thomson, Murray J., 2015. "A review of the combustion and emissions properties of advanced transportation biofuels and their impact on existing and future engines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1393-1417.
    10. Alyami, Saleh. H. & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan, 2013. "Developing sustainable building assessment scheme for Saudi Arabia: Delphi consultation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 43-54.
    11. Kargbo, Hannah & Harris, Jonathan Stuart & Phan, Anh N., 2021. "“Drop-in” fuel production from biomass: Critical review on techno-economic feasibility and sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    12. Vladimir Heredia & Olivier Gonçalves & Luc Marchal & Jeremy Pruvost, 2021. "Producing Energy-Rich Microalgae Biomass for Liquid Biofuels: Influence of Strain Selection and Culture Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Natalia Stefania Piotrowska & Stanisław Zbigniew Czachorowski & Mariusz Jerzy Stolarski, 2020. "Ground Beetles ( Carabidae ) in the Short-Rotation Coppice Willow and Poplar Plants—Synergistic Benefits System," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-23, December.
    14. Haarhaus, Tim & Liening, Andreas, 2020. "Building dynamic capabilities to cope with environmental uncertainty: The role of strategic foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    15. Gamborg, Christian & Anker, Helle Tegner & Sandøe, Peter, 2014. "Ethical and legal challenges in bioenergy governance: Coping with value disagreement and regulatory complexity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 326-333.
    16. Fedorova, Elena & Pongrácz, Eva, 2019. "Cumulative social effect assessment framework to evaluate the accumulation of social sustainability benefits of regional bioenergy value chains," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 1073-1088.
    17. Yeh, Duen-Yian & Cheng, Ching-Hsue, 2015. "Recommendation system for popular tourist attractions in Taiwan using Delphi panel and repertory grid techniques," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 164-176.
    18. Polprasert, Chongchin & Patthanaissaranukool, Withida & Englande, Andrew J., 2015. "A choice between RBD (refined, bleached, and deodorized) palm olein and palm methyl ester productions from carbon movement categorization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 610-620.
    19. Hsin-Ke Lu & Sung-Chun Tsai & Peng-Chun Lin & Kuo-Chung Chu & Alexander N. Chen, 2020. "Toward a New Real-Time Approach for Group Consensus: A Usability Analysis of Synchronous Delphi System," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 345-370, April.
    20. Azad, A.K. & Rasul, M.G. & Khan, M.M.K. & Sharma, Subhash C. & Mofijur, M. & Bhuiya, M.M.K., 2016. "Prospects, feedstocks and challenges of biodiesel production from beauty leaf oil and castor oil: A nonedible oil sources in Australia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 302-318.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:92:y:2015:i:c:p:53-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.