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The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and Its Variability

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Timothy D. Lane
  • Mr. Leslie Lipschitz
  • Ms. Cristina Arellano
  • Mr. Ales Bulir

Abstract

The paper examines the effects of aid and its volatility on consumption, investment, and the structure of production in the context of an intertemporal two-sector general equilibrium model. A permanent flow of aid finances mainly consumption, a result consistent with the historical failure of aid inflows to translate into sustained growth. Shocks to aid are reflected mainly in investment fluctuations, as a result of consumption smoothing. Aid shocks result in substantial welfare losses, suggesting that aid variability should be taken into account in designing aid architecture. These results are consistent with the evidence from cross-country regressions of manufactured exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Timothy D. Lane & Mr. Leslie Lipschitz & Ms. Cristina Arellano & Mr. Ales Bulir, 2005. "The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and Its Variability," IMF Working Papers 2005/119, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/119
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2001. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 641-672, November.
    2. Hossein Jalilian & Michael Tribe & John Weiss (ed.), 2000. "Industrial Development and Policy in Africa," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1812.
    3. Arne Bigsten & Paul Collier & Stefan Dercon & Marcel Fafchamps & Bernard Gauthier & Jan Willem Gunning & Abena Oduro & Remco Oostendorp & Catherine Pattillo & Måns Soderbom & Francis Teal & Albert Zeu, 2004. "Do African Manufacturing Firms Learn from Exporting?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 115-141.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; capital stock; standard deviation; rate of return; exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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