IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/6174.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Ofair Razin
  • Susan M. Collins

Abstract

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment is now a standard concept in international macroeconomic theory and policy. However, there is neither a consensus indicator of misalignment, nor an agreed upon methodology for constructing such an indicator. This paper constructs an indicator of RER misalignment for a large sample of developed and developing countries. This indicator is based on a well-structured but simple extension of an IS-LM model of an open economy. The paper then uses regression analysis to explore whether RER misalignments are related to country growth experiences. Interestingly the work finds that there are important non-linearities in the relationship. Only very high over-valuations" appear to be associated with slower economic growth, while moderate to high (but not very high) under-valuations appear to be associated with more rapid economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," NBER Working Papers 6174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6174
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6174.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    2. B. Bosworth & S. M. Collins & Y. Chen, "undated". "Accounting for Difference in Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 115, Brookings Institution International Economics.
    3. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    4. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
    5. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Leonardo Leiderman, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of Capital Flows to Latin America: Experience and Policy Issues," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 5821, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
    7. repec:idb:wpaper:310 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mr. Peter B. Clark & Mr. Steven A. Symansky & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 1994/017, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Gavin, Michael & Hausmann, Ricardo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of Capital Flows to Latin America: Experience and Policy Issues," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6188, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Susan M. Collins & Barry P. Bosworth, 1996. "Economic Growth in East Asia: Accumulation versus Assimilation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 135-204.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," International Finance 9707001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," Research Department Publications 4020, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996. "Asegurar la estabilidad y el crecimiento en una región propensa a las sacudidas: los retos de políticas para América Latina," Research Department Publications 4021, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2008. "Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 29-96, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. repec:dgr:rugsom:99e23 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:dgr:rugsom:99e37 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Robert Lensink & Hong Bo & Elmer Sterken, 1999. "Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(3), pages 379-396, September.
    8. Ahsan Abbas & Eatzaz Ahmed & Fazal Husain, 2019. "Political and Economic Uncertainty and Investment Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 307-331.
    9. Lensink, Robert, 1999. "Uncertainty, financial development and economic growth: an empirical analysis," Research Report 99E37, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    10. repec:dgr:rugccs:199902 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Vaseem Akram & Badri Narayan Rath, 2018. "Exchange rate misalignment and total factor productivity growth in case of emerging market economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 547-564, July.
    12. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    13. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.
    14. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    15. Sarath Delpachitra & Pham Van Dai, 2012. "The Determinants of TFP Growth in Middle Income Economies in ASEAN: Implication of Financial Crises," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 11(1), pages 63-88, June.
    16. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 121-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta, 2003. "The Driving Forces of Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence for the OECD Countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2001(2), pages 9-56.
    18. Mailand, Wilhelm, 1998. "Zum Einfluß von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstätigkeit," HWWA Discussion Papers 57, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    19. Kaido Kepp & Kadri Männasoo, 2021. "Investment irreversibility and cyclical adversity: Implications for the financial performance of European manufacturing companies," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1665-1678, October.
    20. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    21. Klaus Mohn & Petter Osmundsen, 2011. "Asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation: an application to oil investment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4387-4401.
    22. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    23. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.