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Revisiting the Commodity Curse: A Financial Perspective

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016

Author

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  • Enrique Alberola
  • Gianluca Benigno

Abstract

We study the response of a three-sector commodity-exporter small open economy to a commodity price boom. When the economy has access to international borrowing and lending, a temporary commodity price boom brings about the standard wealth effect that stimulates domand and has long-run implications on the sectoral allocation of labor. If dynamic productivity gains are concentrated in the traded goods sector, the commodity boom crowds out the traded sector and delays convergence to the world technology frontier. Financial openness by stimulating current demand, amplifies the crowding out effect and may even lead to a growth trap, in which no resources are allocated to the traded sector. From a normative point of view, our analysis suggests that capital account management policies could be welfare improving in those circumstances.
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Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Alberola & Gianluca Benigno, 2016. "Revisiting the Commodity Curse: A Financial Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13820
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    3. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Rocío Gondo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2016. "Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America: the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," BIS Working Papers 568, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Roberto Iacono, 2018. "The Dutch disease revisited: absorption constraint and learning by doing," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(1), pages 61-85, March.
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    6. Chen, Yufeng & Khurshid, Adnan & Rauf, Abdur & Yang, Hanyao & Calin, Adrian Cantemir, 2023. "Natural resource endowment and human development: Contemporary role of governance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Varela, Liliana & Saffie, Felipe & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2020. "The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 14893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Lee, Dongwon, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade volatility and industry growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Bilgili, Faik & Kassouri, Yacouba & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Majok Garang, Aweng Peter, 2024. "The dynamic nexus of oil price fluctuations and banking sector in China: A continuous wavelet analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Влияние Внешних Шоков На Российскую Экономику // The Impact Of External Shocks On The Russian Economy," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(4), pages 146-170.
    11. Osmel Manzano & Jose Luis Saboin, 2021. "Reverse Causality between Oil Policy and Fiscal Policy? The Venezuelan Experience," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.
    12. Kai Chen & Dongwon Lee, 2023. "Commodity currency reactions and the Dutch disease: the role of capital controls," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2065-2089, November.
    13. Schmöller, Michaela, 2019. "Stagnant Wages, Sectoral Misallocation and Slowing Productivity Growth," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203598, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Zhu, Yongguang & Xu, Deyi & Cheng, Jinhua & Ali, Saleem Hassan, 2018. "Estimating the impact of China's export policy on tin prices: a mode decomposition counterfactual analysis method," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 250-264.
    15. Chen, Yanan & Qi, Haozhi, 2024. "COVID-19 pandemic-related news and Chinese commodities futures: Time-frequency connectedness and causality-in-quantiles approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Schmöller, Michaela, 2019. "Stagnant wages, sectoral misallocation and slowing productivity growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2019, Bank of Finland.
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    19. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Oil Stabilization Fund and the Dutch Disease," Working Papers hal-01796312, HAL.
    20. Damian Romero, 2022. "Domestic Linkages and the Transmission of Commodity Price Shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 936, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. Akihiko Ikeda, 2020. "Learning-by-doing and business cycles in emerging economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 611-631, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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