IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ccexxx/v05y2014i04ns2010007814500109.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Weather Shocks And Inter-Hemispheric Supply Responses: Implications For Climate Change Effects On Global Food Markets

Author

Listed:
  • TRAVIS J. LYBBERT

    (Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, USA)

  • AARON SMITH

    (Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, USA)

  • DANIEL A. SUMNER

    (Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, USA)

Abstract

Climate models predict more weather extremes in the coming decades. Weather shocks can directly reduce crop production, but their effect on food markets is partly buffered by storage and supply responses that can be complex and nuanced. We explore how inter-hemispheric trade and supply responses can moderate the effects of weather shocks on global food supply by enabling potential intra-annual arbitrage. Our estimates of this effect in the case of wheat and soybeans suggest that it may be considerable: 25–50% of crop production lost to a shock in the Southern Hemisphere is offset six months later by increased production in the North. These results have implications for the potential effects of climate change on global food markets, for how we model these interactions and, possibly, for the design of trade and production-related policies that aim to leverage this inter-hemispheric buffer more effectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Travis J. Lybbert & Aaron Smith & Daniel A. Sumner, 2014. "Weather Shocks And Inter-Hemispheric Supply Responses: Implications For Climate Change Effects On Global Food Markets," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:05:y:2014:i:04:n:s2010007814500109
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007814500109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010007814500109
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S2010007814500109?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shon M Ferguson & Johan Gars, 2020. "Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(3), pages 1094-1132.
    2. Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Deininger, Klaus & Monchuk, Daniel, 2020. "Using satellite imagery to assess impacts of soil and water conservation measures: Evidence from Ethiopia’s Tana-Beles watershed," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Chen, Bowen & Villoria, Nelson B., 2018. "Food Price Variability and Import Dependence: A Country Panel Analysis," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274285, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Arellano Gonzalez, Jesus, 2018. "Estimating climate change damages in data scarce and non-competitive settings: a novel version of the Ricardian approach with an application to Mexico," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274010, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Aled W. Jones & Alexander Phillips, 2016. "Historic Food Production Shocks: Quantifying the Extremes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-10, April.
    6. Bertone Oehninger, Ernst & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia & Sanchirico, James & Springborn, Michael, 2016. "The effects of climate change on groundwater extraction for agriculture and land-use change," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235724, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Chatzopoulos, T. & Perez Dominguez, I. & Zampieri, M. & Toreti, A., 2018. "Agricultural commodity market responses to extreme agroclimatic events," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276039, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Bednar-Friedl, Birgit & Knittel, Nina & Raich, Joachim & Adams, Kevin M., 2022. "Adaptation to transboundary climate risks in trade: investigating actors and strategies for an emerging challenge," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113693, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 590-606, October.
    2. George Cusworth & Jennifer Dodsworth, 2021. "Using the ‘good farmer’ concept to explore agricultural attitudes to the provision of public goods. A case study of participants in an English agri-environment scheme," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 38(4), pages 929-941, December.
    3. Eshita Gupta & Bharat Ramaswami & E. Somanathan, 2021. "The Distributional Impact of Climate Change: Why Food Prices Matter," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 249-275, July.
    4. Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Valentina Bosetti & Jessica Callen & Jacques Després & Jonathan Doelman & Laurent Drou, 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 386-396, May.
    5. Jin, Yu & Huffman, Wallace E., 2013. "Reduced U.S. Funding of Public Agricultural Research and Extension Risks Lowering Future Agricultural Productivity Growth Prospects," Staff General Research Papers Archive 36796, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. De Pinto, Alessandro & Wiebe, Keith D. & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2016. "Climate change and agricultural policy options: A global-to-local approach," Policy briefs 978-089629-244-4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Athanasios Petsakos & Guy Hareau & Ulrich Kleinwechter & Keith Wiebe & Timothy B Sulser, 2018. "Comparing modeling approaches for assessing priorities in international agricultural research," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 145-156.
    8. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    9. Yu Jin & Wallace E. Huffman, 2016. "Measuring public agricultural research and extension and estimating their impacts on agricultural productivity: new insights from U.S. evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(1), pages 15-31, January.
    10. Boris O. K. Lokonon & Aly A. Mbaye, 2019. "Implications of Climate-Related Factors on Living Standards: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1404-1417.
    11. Agustin L. Arcenas, 2018. "Determining the Inflationary Effects of El Niño and La Niña in the Philippines," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201802, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    12. Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B., 2014. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 562-575.
    13. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Blanco, Maria & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin, 2014. "Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182826, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies?," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124192, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    16. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
    17. Takle, Eugene S. & Gustafson, David & Beachy, Roger & Neslon, Gerald C. & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Palazzo, Amanda, 2013. "US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-41.
    18. Pardey, Philip G. & Beddow, Jason M. & Hurley, Terrance M. & Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Eidman, Vernon R., 2014. "The International Agricultural Prospects Model: Assessing Consumption and Production Futures Through 2050 (version 2.1)," Staff Papers 182192, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    19. John Murray McIntire, 2014. "Transforming African Agriculture," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(2), pages 145-179, May.
    20. Briones, Roehlano & Felipe, Jesus, 2013. "Agriculture and Structural Transformation in Developing Asia: Review and Outlook," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 363, Asian Development Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:05:y:2014:i:04:n:s2010007814500109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/cce/cce.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.