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Price discovery in chinese agricultural futures markets: A comprehensive look

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  • Jian Yang
  • Zheng Li
  • Tao Wang

Abstract

This study investigates price discovery performance for the 11 most traded agricultural commodity futures in China, proposing an improved recursive cointegration analysis. Despite a relatively short trading history and being subject to various policy interventions, China's agricultural futures markets generally play a more dominant role in the price discovery process as the markets become mature, even with further allowance for time variations and regional variations in the price discovery process. Additional analysis reveals various determinants of the contribution of futures versus local cash market prices in the price discovery process. There may also be seriously misleading inferences drawn from using nearby futures data in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Jian Yang & Zheng Li & Tao Wang, 2021. "Price discovery in chinese agricultural futures markets: A comprehensive look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 536-555, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:41:y:2021:i:4:p:536-555
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22179
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mathias Schneid Tessmann & Carlos Enrique Carrasco-Gutierrez & Alexandre Vasconcelos Lima, 2023. "Determinants of Corn and Soybean Futures Prices Traded on the Brazilian Stock Exchange: An ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(1), pages 1-65, January.
    3. Ziliang Yu & Jian Yang & Robert I. Webb, 2023. "Price discovery in China's crude oil futures markets: An emerging Asian benchmark?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 297-324, March.
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    5. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2022. "The impact of VIX on China’s financial market: A new perspective based on high-dimensional and time-varying methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Qianqian Mao & Jens-Peter Loy & Thomas Glauben & Yanjun Ren, . "Are futures markets functioning well for agricultural perishables? Evidence from China's apple futures market," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 0.
    7. Qianqian Mao & Jens-Peter Loy & Thomas Glauben & Yanjun Ren, 2023. "Are futures markets functioning well for agricultural perishables? Evidence from China's apple futures market," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(12), pages 471-484.
    8. David K. Ding & Wui Boon Lim, 2024. "Lessons from the Demise of the Brent Crude Oil Futures Contract on the Singapore Exchange," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Fang, Ming & Lin, Yizhou & Chang, Chiu-Lan, 2023. "Positive and negative price bubbles of Chinese agricultural commodity futures," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 456-471.
    10. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Forecasting the total market value of a shares traded in the Shenzhen stock exchange via the neural network," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1266-1279.
    11. Lu, Xinjie & Su, Yuandong & Huang, Dengshi, 2023. "Chinese agricultural futures volatility: New insights from potential domestic and global predictors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
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    14. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Commodity price forecasting via neural networks for coffee, corn, cotton, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar, and wheat," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 169-181, July.

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