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Price Discovery in the Chinese Corn Futures Market, With Comparisons to Soybean Futures

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  • Yunxian Yan
  • Michael Reed

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Chinese corn futures market is the second largest after the CBOT in terms of trading volume in contracts. In 2012, the trading volume of corn futures was 37 million contracts (or 378 million metric tons). The relationship between Chinese corn futures and spot prices is studied to gauge the price discovery process. Formal statistical tests are conducted based on Johansen's co‐integration, Granger causality and the Garbade‐Silber approach for the corn spot prices and futures prices. All empirical analysis is also performed for GMO and non‐GMO soybeans to provide a contrast with the corn futures market. The results suggest that Chinese corn futures prices guide the spot prices; that is, the corn futures market can serve as legitimate guide for future cash prices. This conclusion is valid for GMO futures market, but is not found to be the case for non‐GMO soybeans, where spot prices guide futures prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunxian Yan & Michael Reed, 2014. "Price Discovery in the Chinese Corn Futures Market, With Comparisons to Soybean Futures," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 398-409, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:30:y:2014:i:4:p:398-409
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/agr.21376
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott, Ayesha & Schoen, Tilman & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian, 2020. "The Predictive Power of NZX Dairy Futures," 2020 Conference (64th), February 12-14, 2020, Perth, Western Australia 305230, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Jian Yang & Zheng Li & Tao Wang, 2021. "Price discovery in chinese agricultural futures markets: A comprehensive look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 536-555, April.
    3. Crentsil Kofi Agyekum & Haifeng Huang & Jianshu Chen, 2017. "The impact of the Chinese cornstarch futures on spot market and corn futures market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1405580-140, January.
    4. Carlotta Penone & Elisa Giampietri & Samuele Trestini, 2022. "Futures–spot price transmission in EU corn markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 679-709, July.
    5. Li, Miao & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Dynamic price discovery in Chinese agricultural futures markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Li, Miao & Xiong, Tao, 2023. "Is China's new live hog futures market efficient? Evidence from an analysis of market quality, price discovery and hedging effectiveness," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 68(01), September.
    7. Mohammad Hasan Mobarok & Wyatt Thompson & Theodoros Skevas, 2024. "Sensitivity of the United States crop basis and distribution network to precipitation," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 908-925, October.

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