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Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations

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The paper derives a test for equal predictability of multi-step-ahead system forecasts that is invariant to linear transformations. The test is a multivariate version of the Diebold-Mariano test. An invariant metric for multi-step-ahead system forecasts is necessary as the conclusions otherwise can depend on how the forecasts are reported (e.g., as in levels or differences; or log-levels or growth rates). The test is used in comparing quarterly multi-step-ahead system forecasts made by Statistics Norway with similar forecasts made by Norges Bank.

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  • Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:931
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    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/en/forskning/discussion-papers/_attachment/422355
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    Cited by:

    1. Magnus Kvåle Helliesen & Håvard Hungnes & Terje Skjerpen, 2022. "Revisions in the Norwegian National Accounts: accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency in preliminary figures," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1079-1121, March.
    2. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Predicting the exchange rate path. The importance of using up-to-date observations in the forecasts," Discussion Papers 934, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic forecasts; Econometric models; Forecast performance; Forecast evaluation; Forecast comparison;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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