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Constructing minimum-width confidence bands

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  • Schüssler, Rainer
  • Trede, Mark

Abstract

We construct minimum-width confidence bands with a predefined nominal coverage from a finite set of sample paths. In contrast to the several heuristics suggested in the literature, our mixed-integer optimization algorithm calculates global minimum-width pathwise confidence bands. For very large problems, our solution can be used as an approximation with a bounded and known gap to the globally optimal solution.

Suggested Citation

  • Schüssler, Rainer & Trede, Mark, 2016. "Constructing minimum-width confidence bands," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 182-185.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:145:y:2016:i:c:p:182-185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.
    2. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
    3. Hall, Peter & Titterington, D. M., 1988. "On confidence bands in nonparametric density estimation and regression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 228-254, October.
    4. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2015. "Comparison of methods for constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 782-798.
    5. Staszewska, Anna, 2007. "Representing uncertainty about response paths: The use of heuristic optimisation methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 121-132, September.
    6. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2020. "Constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of VAR models – A review," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 69-83.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pathwise confidence bands; Mixed-integer optimization; Multiperiod forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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