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Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment Using Uncompleted Spells from Repeated Cross-Section Data

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  • Güell, Maia

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Hu, Luojia

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-ofmoments- based estimator has two important features: (1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and (2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflow composition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposed estimator using Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changes in distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a period of labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leaving unemployment for the short-term unemployed compared to the long-term unemployed becomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Güell, Maia & Hu, Luojia, 2004. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment Using Uncompleted Spells from Repeated Cross-Section Data," IZA Discussion Papers 1079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1079
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    repeated cross-section data; GMM; duration analysis; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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