IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v29y2024i1p887-902.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there a nonlinear relationship between public investment and private investment? Evidence from 21 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries

Author

Listed:
  • Sofia São Marcos
  • Sofia Vale

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between public investment and private investment in a sample of 21 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries between 2000 and 2019. Using panel data nonlinear threshold regression models, the empirical results show that there exist threshold levels for the share of public investment in private investment, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and the real interest rate that affect the relationship between public and private investment. All estimates support a crowding‐in effect of public investment on private investment. In terms of policy prescriptions, by increasing public investment, OECD governments can expect positive spillovers to private investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofia São Marcos & Sofia Vale, 2024. "Is there a nonlinear relationship between public investment and private investment? Evidence from 21 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 887-902, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:29:y:2024:i:1:p:887-902
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2712
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2712
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.2712?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2016. "Too much and too fast? Public investment scaling-up and absorptive capacity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 17-31.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    3. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2018. "Interactions between regional public and private investment: evidence from Japanese prefectures," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 195-211, January.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    5. Bahal, Girish & Raissi, Mehdi & Tulin, Volodymyr, 2018. "Crowding-out or crowding-in? Public and private investment in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 323-333.
    6. Lutfi Erden & Randall G. Holcombe, 2005. "The Effects of Public Investment on Private Investment in Developing Economies," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(5), pages 575-602, September.
    7. Barbosa, Diogo & Carvalho, Vitor M. & Pereira, Paulo J., 2016. "Public stimulus for private investment: An extended real options model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 742-748.
    8. Bergh, Andreas & Dackehag, Margareta & Rode, Martin, 2017. "Are OECD policy recommendations for public sector reform biased against welfare states? Evidence from a new database," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 3-15.
    9. Garikai Makuyana & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Public and private investment and economic growth in Zimbabwe: An empirical test," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(1), pages 60-76, March.
    10. Lucyna Górnicka & Christophe Kamps & Gerrit Koester & Nadine Leiner-Killinger, 2020. "Learning about fiscal multipliers during the European sovereign debt crisis: evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 5-40.
    11. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    12. Erdal Atukeren, 2005. "Interactions Between Public and Private Investment: Evidence from Developing Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 307-330, July.
    13. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2016. "Crowding-in and crowding-out effects of public investments in the Portuguese economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 488-506, July.
    14. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2019. "Economic growth, public, and private investment returns in 17 OECD economies," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 47-65, February.
    15. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    16. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    17. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    18. MAKUYANA, Garikai & ODHIAMBO, Nicholas M., 2018. "Public and Private Investment and Economic Growth in Zambia: A Dynamic Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(4), pages 503-526.
    19. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2004. "Do public investments crowd out private investments? Fresh evidence from Fiji," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 747-753, September.
    20. Noman Saeed & Kalim Hyder & Asghar Ali, 2006. "The Impact of Public Investment on Private Investment: A Disaggregated Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 639-663.
    21. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2009. "Macroeconomic Rates Of Return Of Public And Private Investment: Crowding‐In And Crowding‐Out Effects," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 21-39, September.
    22. Nusrat Akber & Megha Gupta & Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh, 2020. "The Crowding-in/ out Debate in Investments in India: Fresh Evidence from NARDL Application," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(2), pages 167-189, December.
    23. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2003. "On the Impact of Public Investment On the Performance of U.S. Industries," Public Finance Review, , vol. 31(1), pages 66-90, January.
    24. Daniel Hoechle, 2007. "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, September.
    25. Xiaoming Xu & Yanyang Yan, 2014. "Does government investment crowd out private investment in China?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, January.
    26. Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2016. "Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 169-186.
    27. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2015. "How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Investment? Evidence from a Large Panel," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 310-327, October.
    28. Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1992. "Private Investment and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Survey," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 7(1), pages 95-114, January.
    29. Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-24.
    30. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    31. Bennett, Daniel L., 2019. "Infrastructure investments and entrepreneurial dynamism in the U.S," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1-1.
    32. Abiad (ADB), Abdul & Furceri (IMF and University of Palermo), Davide & Topalova (IMF), Petia, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-240.
    33. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2012. "Regime dependence of the fiscal multiplier," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 502-522.
    34. Robert J. Barro, 2015. "Convergence and Modernisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 911-942, June.
    35. Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2016. "Does public investment stimulate private investment? Evidence for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 154-158.
    36. Olivier J Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2014. "Learning about Fiscal Multipliers from Growth Forecast Errors," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(2), pages 179-212, June.
    37. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2019. "Does Fiscal Deficit Crowd Out Private Corporate Sector Investment In India?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1201-1224, December.
    38. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    39. Voss, Graham M., 2002. "Public and private investment in the United States and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 641-664, August.
    40. Xiaoming Xu & Yanyang Yan, 2014. "Does government investment crowd out private investment in China?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, March.
    41. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abiad (ADB), Abdul & Furceri (IMF and University of Palermo), Davide & Topalova (IMF), Petia, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-240.
    2. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2020. "Economic Growth, Public and Private Investment: A Comparative Study of China and the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Javed Ahmad Bhat & Taufeeq Ajaz, 2020. "The Public–Private Investment Nexus In India: Evidence From A Policy Simulation Approach," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(224), pages 101-128, January –.
    4. Nusrat Akber & Megha Gupta & Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh, 2020. "The Crowding-in/ out Debate in Investments in India: Fresh Evidence from NARDL Application," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(2), pages 167-189, December.
    5. Baussola, Maurizio & Carvelli, Gianni, 2023. "Public and private investments: Long-run asymmetric effects in France and the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    6. Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sahoo, Manoranjan, 2018. "Is crude oil price detrimental to domestic private investment for an emerging economy? The role of public sector investment and financial sector development in an era of globalization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-324.
    7. Cevik, Serhan, 2020. "You are suffocating me: Firm-level analysis of state-owned enterprises and private investment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 292-301.
    8. Carvelli, Gianni, 2024. "The dynamic effects of public investments on private capital formation: Modelling a heterogeneous asymmetric cointegration with unobserved global factors," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    9. Ouédraogo, Rasmané & Sawadogo, Relwendé & Sawadogo, Hamidou, 2020. "Private and public investment in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of instability risks," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    10. Olegs Matvejevs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2022. "Public investment crowds in private investment - with ifs and buts," Working Papers 2022/04, Latvijas Banka.
    11. Eslon Ngeendepi & Andrew Phiri, 2021. "Do FDI and Public Investment Crowd in/out Domestic Private Investment in the SADC Region?," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 19(1 (Spring), pages 3-25.
    12. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    13. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2018. "Interactions between regional public and private investment: evidence from Japanese prefectures," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 195-211, January.
    14. António Afonso & Jorge Caiado & Omar Al. Kanaan, 2024. "Public and Private Investments: A VAR Analysis of Their Impact on Economic Growth in 18 Advanced Economies," Working Papers REM 2024/0350, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2016. "Economic Growth and Public and Private Investment Returns," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/14, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Modeste, Nelson, 2024. "The Relative Effects of Public and Private Capital on Guyana's Economic Performance, 1980 to 2018: A Cointegration Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(3), pages 463-482.
    17. Rasmané Ouédraogo & Hamidou Sawadogo & Relwendé Sawadogo, 2019. "Impact of Public Investment on Private Investment in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Crowding In or Crowding Out?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 318-334, September.
    18. Olaoye, Olumide O. & Eluwole, Oluwatosin O. & Ayesha, Aziz & Afolabi, Olugbenga O., 2020. "Government spending and economic growth in ECOWAS: An asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    19. Adegboye, Abiodun Adewale & Alimi, R. Santos, 2017. "Public – Private Investment Nexus in Developing Economies: Does Financial Sector Development Matter for Nigeria?," MPRA Paper 80908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mathias A. Chuba, 2021. "Crowding-Out and Crowding-In Effects of Public Borrowing on Private Domestic Investment in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(11), pages 439-448, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:29:y:2024:i:1:p:887-902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.