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How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Investment? Evidence from a Large Panel

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We assess the relevance of fiscal components for private and public investment using data for a large panel of 95 countries for the period 1970–2008. Accounting for the usual econometric pitfalls, our results suggest a negative effect of government expenditure and of government consumption spending on private investment. Interest payments and subsidies have a negative effect on both types of investment (particularly in emerging economies). Social security spending has a negative effect on private investment for the full and OECD samples, whereas government health spending has a positive and significant impact on private investment. Moreover, stronger fiscal numerical rules decrease public investment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2015. "How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Investment? Evidence from a Large Panel," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 310-327, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:20:y:2015:i:4:p:310-327
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    Cited by:

    1. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    2. Jose Alves, 2019. "The impact of tax structure on investment: an empirical assessment for OECD countries," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 291-309.
    3. Olegs Tkacevs, 2020. "Secular Decline in Public Investment: are National Fiscal Rules to Blame?," Working Papers 2020/04, Latvijas Banka.
    4. Alessandra Cepparulo & Giuseppe Eusepi & Luisa Giuriato, 2024. "Public Finance, Fiscal Rules and Public–Private Partnerships: Lessons for Post-COVID-19 Investment Plans," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(1), pages 191-213, March.
    5. Sofia São Marcos & Sofia Vale, 2024. "Is there a nonlinear relationship between public investment and private investment? Evidence from 21 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 887-902, January.
    6. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2018. "Fiscal Sustainability in the EU," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 297-311, September.
    7. Sun, Chuanwang & Khan, Anwar & Liu, Yongzhe & Lei, Ni, 2022. "An analysis of the impact of fiscal and monetary policy fluctuations on the disaggregated level renewable energy generation in the G7 countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1154-1165.
    8. José Alves, 2018. "A DSGE Model to Evaluate the Macroeconomic Impacts of Taxation," Working Papers REM 2018/62, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Azhgaliyeva, Dina & Beirne, John & Mishra, Ranjeeta, 2021. "What Matters for Private Investment Financing in Renewable Energy Globally and in Asia?," ADBI Working Papers 1246, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Marta Rodriguez-Vives, 2019. "The quality of public finances: where do we stand?," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 97-105.
    11. Andreas Bergh & Christian Bjørnskov, 2020. "Does Big Government Hurt Growth Less In High‐Trust Countries?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 643-658, October.
    12. Nini Johana Marín-Rodríguez & Juan David Gonzalez-Ruiz & Alejandro Peña, 2024. "Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability in Latin American Countries: A Time–Frequency Perspective," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    13. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2019. "Economic growth, public, and private investment returns in 17 OECD economies," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 47-65, February.
    14. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Olayinka Oyekola & Rasheed Adigun & Temitope Fagbemi & Oluwagbenga Seyingbo & Rodiat Lawal, 2023. "Heterogeneous and time varying nexus between climate change and quality of life in Africa," Discussion Papers 2308, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    15. Bergh, Andreas & Bjørnskov, Christian, 2016. "Burying the Bumblebee Once and for All:," Working Paper Series 1119, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    16. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2016. "Economic Growth and Public and Private Investment Returns," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/14, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.

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