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Causal effect of early initiation on adolescent smoking patterns

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  • M. Christopher Auld

Abstract

. A key concern in policy debates over youth smoking is whether preventing children from smoking will stop them from smoking as adults or merely defer initiation into smoking. This paper estimates determinants of smoking status in late adolescence viewing smoking at age 14 as an endogenous ‘treatment’ on subsequent smoking. This approach disentangles causation from unobserved heterogeneity and allows addictiveness to vary across individuals. Exploiting large tax changes across time and across regions in Canada in the early 1990s, the estimated model suggests that smoking is highly addictive for the average youth but less so for youths who actually do initiate early or who are likely to be induced to initiate early at the margin. Thus, policies that deter initiation will reduce eventual smoking rates, but not by as large a magnitude as conventional econometric models might suggest. JEL classification: I1, C3 Effet causal d’avoir commencéà fumer tôt sur les comportements de fumeur des adolescents. Un problème central dans les débats de politique publique sur le fumage chez les jeunes est de savoir si empêcher les enfants de fumer va les amener à ne pas fumer à l’âge adulte ou tout simplement reporter le commencement du fumage. Ce mémoire examine les déterminants de l’état de fumeur à la fin de l’adolescence en considérant le fait de fumer à 14 ans comme un facteur ayant un impact sur les comportements ultérieurs. Cette approche distingue la causalité de l’hétérogénéité non‐observée et permet à la dépendance de varier d’un individu à l’autre. Utilisant le vaste éventail de changements dans les taxes sur le tabac dans le temps et d’une région à l’autre au Canada au début des années 1990, on calibre le modèle. Les résultats suggèrent que fumer engendre une forte dépendance chez les jeunes en moyenne mais que c’est moins vrai pour ceux qui ont commencéà fumer tôt ou ceux qui sont susceptibles de commencer à fumer tôt à la marge. Voilà qui suggère que les politiques qui découragent le fumage chez les très jeunes vont réduire le taux de fumeurs dans la population mais que cet effet ne sera pas aussi grand que ce que suggèrent les modèles économétriques conventionnels.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Christopher Auld, 2005. "Causal effect of early initiation on adolescent smoking patterns," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 709-734, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:38:y:2005:i:3:p:709-734
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0008-4085.2005.00299.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Sasaki, Yuya & Ura, Takuya, 2023. "Estimation and inference for policy relevant treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 394-450.
    2. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Don & Mathios, Alan, 2008. "Cigarette taxes and the transition from youth to adult smoking: Smoking initiation, cessation, and participation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 904-917, July.
    3. David Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2009. "Addiction, social interactions and gender differences in cigarette consumption," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 245-272, August.
    4. Jesse A. Matheson, 2015. "Prices and social behaviour: Evidence from adult smoking in Canadian Aboriginal communities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(5), pages 1661-1693, December.
    5. Michael Kuhn & Alexia Prskawetz & Uwe Sunde, 2014. "Health, education, and retirement over the prolonged life cycle: a selective survey of recent research," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22.
    6. Jensen, Robert & Lleras-Muney, Adriana, 2012. "Does staying in school (and not working) prevent teen smoking and drinking?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 644-657.
    7. Pearl Bader & David Boisclair & Roberta Ferrence, 2011. "Effects of Tobacco Taxation and Pricing on Smoking Behavior in High Risk Populations: A Knowledge Synthesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-22, October.
    8. Auld M. Christopher & Zarrabi Mahmood, 2015. "Long-Term Effects of Tobacco Prices Faced by Adolescents," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24, January.
    9. Shantanu Bagchi & James Feigenbaum, 2014. "Is Smoking a Fiscal Good?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 170-190, January.
    10. Anindya Sen, 2009. "Estimating the impacts of household behavior on youth smoking: evidence from Ontario, Canada," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 189-218, June.
    11. Brian Krauth, 2005. "Peer effects and selection effects on smoking among Canadian youth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 735-757, August.
    12. Anindya Sen & Tony Wirjanto, 2010. "Estimating the impacts of cigarette taxes on youth smoking participation, initiation, and persistence: empirical evidence from Canada," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1264-1280, November.
    13. Angela Daley & Muntasir Rahman & Barry Watson, 2021. "A breath of fresh air: The effect of public smoking bans on Indigenous youth," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1517-1539, June.
    14. Zhuang Hao & Benjamin W. Cowan, 2017. "The Effects of Graduation Requirements on Risky Health Behaviors of High School Students," NBER Working Papers 23803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Anirban Basu & James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro‐Lozano & Sergio Urzua, 2007. "Use of instrumental variables in the presence of heterogeneity and self‐selection: an application to treatments of breast cancer patients," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(11), pages 1133-1157, November.
    16. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2010. "Entering new country and product markets: does export promotion help?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 437-467, September.
    17. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2010. "Entering new country and product markets: does export promotion help?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 437-467, September.
    18. Anirban Basu & James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro-Lozano & Sergio Urzua, 2007. "Use of instrumental variables in the presence of heterogeneity and self-selection: an application to treatments of breast cancer patients," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(11), pages 1133-1157.

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    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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