IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhecon/v32y2013i1p114-127.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Smoking initiation and the iron law of demand

Author

Listed:
  • Lillard, Dean R.
  • Molloy, Eamon
  • Sfekas, Andrew

Abstract

We show, with three longitudinal datasets, that cigarette taxes and prices affect smoking initiation decisions. Evidence from longitudinal studies is mixed but generally find that initiation does not vary with price or tax. We show that the lack of statistical significance partly results because of limited policy variation in the time periods studied, truncated behavioral windows, or mis-assignment of price and tax rates in retrospective data (which occurs when one has no information about respondents’ prior state or region of residence). Our findings highlight issues relevant to initiation behavior generally, particularly those for which individuals’ responses to policy changes may be noisy or small in magnitude.

Suggested Citation

  • Lillard, Dean R. & Molloy, Eamon & Sfekas, Andrew, 2013. "Smoking initiation and the iron law of demand," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 114-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:32:y:2013:i:1:p:114-127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2012.08.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167629612001154
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2012.08.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph J. Sabia, 2006. "Does sex education affect adolescent sexual behaviors and health?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 783-802.
    2. Dean R. Lillard & Andrew Sfekas, 2013. "Just passing through: the effect of the Master Settlement Agreement on estimated cigarette tax price pass-through," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 353-357, March.
    3. Carpenter, Christopher & Cook, Philip J., 2008. "Cigarette taxes and youth smoking: New evidence from national, state, and local Youth Risk Behavior Surveys," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 287-299, March.
    4. Feng Liu, 2010. "Cutting through the smoke: separating the effect of price on smoking initiation, relapse and cessation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2921-2939.
    5. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Warner, Kenneth E., 2000. "The economics of smoking," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 1539-1627, Elsevier.
    6. Cawley, John & Markowitz, Sara & Tauras, John, 2004. "Lighting up and slimming down: the effects of body weight and cigarette prices on adolescent smoking initiation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 293-311, March.
    7. Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Alan Mathios, 2002. "Putting Out the Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce the Onset of Youth Smoking?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 144-169, February.
    8. Rajeev K. Goel & Michael A. Nelson, 2006. "The Effectiveness of Anti‐Smoking Legislation: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 325-355, July.
    9. Orphanides, Athanasios & Zervos, David, 1995. "Rational Addiction with Learning and Regret," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 739-758, August.
    10. Jonathan Gruber & Botond Köszegi, 2001. "Is Addiction "Rational"? Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1261-1303.
    11. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Don & Mathios, Alan, 2008. "Cigarette taxes and the transition from youth to adult smoking: Smoking initiation, cessation, and participation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 904-917, July.
    12. Glied, Sherry, 2002. "Youth tobacco control: reconciling theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 117-135, January.
    13. Douglas, Stratford, 1998. "The Duration of the Smoking Habit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 49-64, January.
    14. Patton, G.C. & Carlin, J.B. & Coffey, C. & Wolfe, R. & Hibbert, M. & Bowes, G., 1998. "Depression, anxiety, and smoking initiation: A prospective study over 3 years," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 88(10), pages 1518-1522.
    15. Christopher Browning & Tama Leventhal & Jeanne Brooks-Gunn, 2004. "Neighborhood context and racial differences in early adolescent sexual activity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(4), pages 697-720, November.
    16. Nonnemaker, James M. & Farrelly, Matthew C., 2011. "Smoking initiation among youth: The role of cigarette excise taxes and prices by race/ethnicity and gender," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 560-567, May.
    17. Gerald S. Oettinger, 1999. "The Effects of Sex Education on Teen Sexual Activity and Teen Pregnancy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 606-635, June.
    18. Jeffrey E. Harris & Sandra W. Chan, 1999. "The continuum‐of‐addiction: cigarette smoking in relation to price among Americans aged 15–29," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-86, February.
    19. Douglas, Stratford & Hariharan, Govind, 1994. "The hazard of starting smoking: Estimates from a split population duration model," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 213-230, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali Palali & Jan C. Ours, 2019. "The impact of tobacco control policies on smoking initiation in eleven European countries," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(9), pages 1287-1301, December.
    2. G. Guindon, 2014. "The impact of tobacco prices on smoking onset in Vietnam: duration analyses of retrospective data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(1), pages 19-39, January.
    3. Pearl Bader & David Boisclair & Roberta Ferrence, 2011. "Effects of Tobacco Taxation and Pricing on Smoking Behavior in High Risk Populations: A Knowledge Synthesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-22, October.
    4. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Don & Mathios, Alan, 2008. "Cigarette taxes and the transition from youth to adult smoking: Smoking initiation, cessation, and participation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 904-917, July.
    5. Sen Anindya & Ariizumi Hideki & Driambe Daciana, 2010. "Do Changes In Cigarette Taxes Impact Youth Smoking? Evidence from Canadian Provinces," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, August.
    6. Ce Shang, 2015. "The Effect of Smoke-Free Air Law in Bars on Smoking Initiation and Relapse among Teenagers and Young Adults," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, January.
    7. Johanna Catherine MacLean & Asia Sikora Kessler & Donald S. Kenkel, 2016. "Cigarette Taxes and Older Adult Smoking: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 424-438, April.
    8. Göhlmann, Silja & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2008. "Smoking in Germany: Stylized Facts, Behavioral Models, and Health Policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 64, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Nonnemaker, James M. & Farrelly, Matthew C., 2011. "Smoking initiation among youth: The role of cigarette excise taxes and prices by race/ethnicity and gender," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 560-567, May.
    10. Hammar, Henrik & Martinsson, Peter, 2001. "The Effect Of Cigarette Prices And Antismoking Policies On The Age Of Smoking Initiation," Working Papers in Economics 62, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    11. repec:zbw:rwirep:0064 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Glied, Sherry, 2002. "Youth tobacco control: reconciling theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 117-135, January.
    13. Charles L. Baum, 2009. "The effects of cigarette costs on BMI and obesity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 3-19, January.
    14. Leigh Ann Leung, 2014. "Healthy And Unhealthy Assimilation: Country Of Origin And Smoking Behavior Among Immigrants," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(12), pages 1411-1429, December.
    15. Anindya Sen & Tony Wirjanto, 2010. "Estimating the impacts of cigarette taxes on youth smoking participation, initiation, and persistence: empirical evidence from Canada," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1264-1280, November.
    16. Jan C. van Ours, 2006. "Dynamics in the use of drugs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(12), pages 1283-1294, December.
    17. Sen Choudhury, Rebecca & Conway, Karen Smith, 2020. "The effect of tobacco policies on youth physical activity," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    18. van Ours, Jan C. & Palali, Ali, 2017. "The Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Initiation in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 12201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Deliana Kostova, 2013. "A (nearly) global look at the dynamics of youth smoking initiation and cessation: the role of cigarette prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3943-3951, October.
    20. Andrew Friedson & Moyan Li & Katherine Meckel & Daniel I. Rees & Daniel W. Sacks, 2024. "Exposure to cigarette taxes as a teenager and the persistence of smoking into adulthood," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 1962-1988, September.
    21. Jan (J.C.) van Ours & Ali Palali, 2017. "The Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Initiation in Europe," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-074/V, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Smoking initiation; Cigarette price elasticity; Cigarette tax elasticity; Chronological behavioral windows; Measurement error;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:32:y:2013:i:1:p:114-127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505560 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.