IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eujhec/v15y2014i1p19-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of tobacco prices on smoking onset in Vietnam: duration analyses of retrospective data

Author

Listed:
  • G. Guindon

Abstract

The benefits of preventing smoking onset are well known, and even just delaying smoking onset conveys benefits. Tobacco control policies are of critical importance to low-income countries with high smoking rates such as Vietnam where smoking prevalence is greater than 55 % in young men between the ages of 25 and 45. Using a survey of teens and young adults, I conducted duration analyses to explore the impact of tobacco price on smoking onset. The results suggest that tobacco prices in Vietnam have a statistically significant and fairly substantial effect on the onset of smoking. Increases in average tobacco prices, measured by an index of tobacco prices and by the prices of two popular brands, are found to delay smoking onset. Of particular interest is the finding that Vietnamese youth are more sensitive to changes in prices of a popular international brand that has had favourable tax treatment since the late 1990s. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • G. Guindon, 2014. "The impact of tobacco prices on smoking onset in Vietnam: duration analyses of retrospective data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(1), pages 19-39, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:15:y:2014:i:1:p:19-39
    DOI: 10.1007/s10198-012-0444-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10198-012-0444-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10198-012-0444-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peng, Yingwei & Zhang, Jiajia, 2008. "Identifiability of a mixture cure frailty model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(16), pages 2604-2608, November.
    2. Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Alan Mathios & Yoon‐Jeong Shin & Jae‐Young Lim, 2008. "Youth smoking, cigarette prices, and anti‐smoking sentiment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 733-749, June.
    3. Cawley, John & Markowitz, Sara & Tauras, John, 2004. "Lighting up and slimming down: the effects of body weight and cigarette prices on adolescent smoking initiation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 293-311, March.
    4. Roberto G. Gutierrez, 2002. "Parametric frailty and shared frailty survival models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(1), pages 22-44, February.
    5. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
    6. Mark Coppejans & Donna Gilleskie & Holger Sieg & Koleman Strumpf, 2007. "Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 510-521, August.
    7. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Don & Mathios, Alan, 2008. "Cigarette taxes and the transition from youth to adult smoking: Smoking initiation, cessation, and participation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 904-917, July.
    8. Michael P. Kidd & Sandra Hopkins, 2004. "The Hazards of Starting and Quitting Smoking: Some Australian Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 177-192, June.
    9. John A. Tauras & Patrick M. O'Malley & Lloyd D. Johnston, 2001. "Effects of Price and Access Laws on Teenage Smoking Initiation: A National Longitudinal Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Feng Liu, 2010. "Cutting through the smoke: separating the effect of price on smoking initiation, relapse and cessation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2921-2939.
    11. Deon Filmer & Lant Pritchett, 1999. "The Effect of Household Wealth on Educational Attainment: Evidence from 35 Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(1), pages 85-120, March.
    12. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, "undated". "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking," Discussion Papers 00/51, Department of Economics, University of York.
    13. Eozenou, Patrick & Fishburn, Burke, 2001. "Price Elasticity Estimates of Cigarette Demand in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 12779, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
    14. Mercken, Liesbeth & Snijders, Tom A.B. & Steglich, Christian & de Vries, Hein, 2009. "Dynamics of adolescent friendship networks and smoking behavior: Social network analyses in six European countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 1506-1514, November.
    15. David Madden, 2007. "Tobacco taxes and starting and quitting smoking: does the effect differ by education?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 613-627.
    16. Hammar, Henrik & Martinsson, Peter, 2001. "The Effect Of Cigarette Prices And Antismoking Policies On The Age Of Smoking Initiation," Working Papers in Economics 62, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    17. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Mathios, Alan, 2000. "Racial Difference in the Determinants of Smoking Onset," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 21(2-3), pages 311-340, November.
    18. Arzhenovskiy Sergey, 2005. "Socioeconomic determinants of smoking in contemporary Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 05-12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    19. Jha, Prabhat & Chaloupka, Frank (ed.), 2000. "Tobacco Control in Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192632463.
    20. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Warner, Kenneth E., 2000. "The economics of smoking," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 1539-1627, Elsevier.
    21. G. Emmanuel Guindon & Arindam Nandi & Frank J. Chaloupka, IV & Prabhat Jha, 2011. "Socioeconomic Differences in the Impact of Smoking Tobacco and Alcohol Prices on Smoking in India," NBER Working Papers 17580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Ramanan Laxminarayan & Anil Deolalikar, 2004. "Tobacco initiation, cessation, and change: evidence from Vietnam," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(12), pages 1191-1201, December.
    23. Deon Filmer & Lant Pritchett, 2001. "Estimating Wealth Effects Without Expenditure Data—Or Tears: An Application To Educational Enrollments In States Of India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 115-132, February.
    24. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, 2001. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(3), pages 517-547.
    25. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, 2003. "Corrigendum: The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 166(3), pages 441-442, October.
    26. Nonnemaker, James M. & Farrelly, Matthew C., 2011. "Smoking initiation among youth: The role of cigarette excise taxes and prices by race/ethnicity and gender," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 560-567, May.
    27. Breslau, N. & Peterson, E.L., 1996. "Smoking cessation in young adults: Age at initiation of cigarette smoking and other suspected influences," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 86(2), pages 214-220.
    28. John Cawley & Sara Markowitz & John Tauras, 2006. "Obesity, Cigarette Prices, Youth Access Laws, and Adolescent Smoking Initiation," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 149-170, Winter.
    29. Colin D Mathers & Dejan Loncar, 2006. "Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(11), pages 1-20, November.
    30. repec:pru:wpaper:30 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Alan Mathios, 2002. "Putting Out the Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce the Onset of Youth Smoking?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 144-169, February.
    32. Douglas, Stratford, 1998. "The Duration of the Smoking Habit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 49-64, January.
    33. Levy, David T. & Bales, Sarah & Lam, Nguyen T. & Nikolayev, Leonid, 2006. "The role of public policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in Vietnam: Results from the Vietnam tobacco policy simulation model," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(7), pages 1819-1830, April.
    34. A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), 2000. "Handbook of Health Economics," Handbook of Health Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    35. Douglas, Stratford & Hariharan, Govind, 1994. "The hazard of starting smoking: Estimates from a split population duration model," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 213-230, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cuong Viet Nguyen, 2012. "Demographic and Socio-economic Determinants of Smoking Behavior: Evidence from Vietnam," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2300-2312.
    2. cuong, nguyen, 2010. "Smoking behavior in Vietnam: demographic and socioeconomic determinants," MPRA Paper 36516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Giselle Montamat, 2019. "How Raising Tobacco Prices Affects the Decision to Start and Quit Smoking: Evidence from Argentina," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-11, September.
    4. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Giselle Montamat, 2015. "How increasing tobacco prices affects the decision to start and quit smoking: evidence from Argentina," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015_3, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    5. Samuel Asare & Michal Stoklosa & Jeffrey Drope & Aidan Larsen, 2019. "Effects of Prices on Youth Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Initiation in Ghana and Nigeria," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-14, August.
    6. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Giselle Montamat, 2015. "How increasing tobacco prices affects the decision to start and quit smoking: evidence from Argentina," Department of Economics Working Papers wp201501, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    7. G. Emmanuel Guindon & Guillermo R. Paraje & Ricardo Chávez, 2018. "Prices, Inflation, And Smoking Onset: The Case Of Argentina," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 424-445, January.
    8. Vellios, Nicole & van Walbeek, Corne, 2014. "Determinants of smoking initiation in South Africa," SALDRU Working Papers 128, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    9. Mohamed Arouri & Adel Ben-Youssef & Cuong Nguyen Viet, 2017. "Does having more children increase the likelihood of parental smoking? Evidence from Vietnam," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 260-275, July.
    10. Ali Palali & Jan C. Ours, 2019. "The impact of tobacco control policies on smoking initiation in eleven European countries," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(9), pages 1287-1301, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pearl Bader & David Boisclair & Roberta Ferrence, 2011. "Effects of Tobacco Taxation and Pricing on Smoking Behavior in High Risk Populations: A Knowledge Synthesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Ali Palali & Jan C. Ours, 2019. "The impact of tobacco control policies on smoking initiation in eleven European countries," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(9), pages 1287-1301, December.
    3. Deliana Kostova & Frank Chaloupka & Ce Shang, 2015. "A duration analysis of the role of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation in developing countries," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(3), pages 279-288, April.
    4. Jan C. van Ours, 2006. "Dynamics in the use of drugs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(12), pages 1283-1294, December.
    5. G. Emmanuel Guindon & Guillermo R. Paraje & Ricardo Chávez, 2018. "Prices, Inflation, And Smoking Onset: The Case Of Argentina," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 424-445, January.
    6. Johanna Catherine MacLean & Asia Sikora Kessler & Donald S. Kenkel, 2016. "Cigarette Taxes and Older Adult Smoking: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 424-438, April.
    7. Lillard, Dean R. & Molloy, Eamon & Sfekas, Andrew, 2013. "Smoking initiation and the iron law of demand," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 114-127.
    8. Nonnemaker, James M. & Farrelly, Matthew C., 2011. "Smoking initiation among youth: The role of cigarette excise taxes and prices by race/ethnicity and gender," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 560-567, May.
    9. Anne Bretteville-Jensen, 2006. "Drug Demand – Initiation, Continuation and Quitting," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 491-516, December.
    10. van Ours, Jan C. & Williams, Jenny, 2007. "Cannabis prices and dynamics of cannabis use," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 578-596, May.
    11. Leigh Ann Leung, 2014. "Healthy And Unhealthy Assimilation: Country Of Origin And Smoking Behavior Among Immigrants," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(12), pages 1411-1429, December.
    12. Hammar, Henrik & Martinsson, Peter, 2001. "The Effect Of Cigarette Prices And Antismoking Policies On The Age Of Smoking Initiation," Working Papers in Economics 62, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    13. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Don & Mathios, Alan, 2008. "Cigarette taxes and the transition from youth to adult smoking: Smoking initiation, cessation, and participation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 904-917, July.
    14. Ce Shang, 2015. "The Effect of Smoke-Free Air Law in Bars on Smoking Initiation and Relapse among Teenagers and Young Adults," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, January.
    15. Deliana Kostova, 2013. "A (nearly) global look at the dynamics of youth smoking initiation and cessation: the role of cigarette prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3943-3951, October.
    16. Line Bretteville-Jensen, Anne & Biørn, Erik & Selmer, Randi, 2011. "Quitting behaviour of cigarette smokers. Are there direct effects of a screening program?," Memorandum 07/2011, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    17. Göhlmann, Silja & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2008. "Smoking in Germany: Stylized Facts, Behavioral Models, and Health Policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 64, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Göhlmann, Silja, 2007. "The Determinants of Smoking Initiation - Empirical Evidence for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 27, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    19. repec:zbw:rwirep:0064 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Joachim Marti, 2014. "The Impact Of Tobacco Control Expenditures On Smoking Initiation And Cessation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(12), pages 1397-1410, December.
    21. Donald S. Kenkel & Dean R. Lillard & Alan D. Mathios, 2004. "Accounting for misclassification error in retrospective smoking data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(10), pages 1031-1044, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vietnam; Smoking initiation; Smoking onset; Tobacco prices; Tobacco taxes; Duration analysis; C41; H20; I18;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:15:y:2014:i:1:p:19-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.