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On estimating the conditional expected shortfall

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  • Franco Peracchi
  • Andrei V. Tanase

Abstract

Unlike the value at risk, the expected shortfall is a coherent measure of risk. In this paper, we discuss estimation of the expected shortfall of a random variable Yt with special reference to the case when auxiliary information is available in the form of a set of predictors Xt. We consider three classes of estimators of the conditional expected shortfall of Yt given Xt: a class of fully non‐parametric estimators and two classes of analog estimators based, respectively, on the empirical conditional quantile function and the empirical conditional distribution function. We study their sampling properties by means of a set of Monte Carlo experiments and analyze their performance in an empirical application to financial data. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Franco Peracchi & Andrei V. Tanase, 2008. "On estimating the conditional expected shortfall," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(5), pages 471-493, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apsmbi:v:24:y:2008:i:5:p:471-493
    DOI: 10.1002/asmb.729
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    1. Gilbert W. Bassett, 2004. "Pessimistic Portfolio Allocation and Choquet Expected Utility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 477-492.
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    Cited by:

    1. So Yeon Chun & Alexander Shapiro & Stan Uryasev, 2012. "Conditional Value-at-Risk and Average Value-at-Risk: Estimation and Asymptotics," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 739-756, August.
    2. Julia S. Mehlitz & Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Time‐varying dynamics of expected shortfall in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 895-925, June.
    3. Maria Rosaria D'Esposito & Michel Tenenhaus, 2008. "Statistical methods in performance analysis," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(5), pages 369-371, September.
    4. Leorato, Samantha & Peracchi, Franco & Tanase, Andrei V., 2012. "Asymptotically efficient estimation of the conditional expected shortfall," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 768-784.
    5. Bruno Bouchard & Adil Reghai & Benjamin Virrion, 2020. "Computation of Expected Shortfall by fast detection of worst scenarios," Papers 2005.12593, arXiv.org.
    6. Saralees Nadarajah & Bo Zhang & Stephen Chan, 2014. "Estimation methods for expected shortfall," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 271-291, February.
    7. Bruno Bouchard & Adil Reghai & Benjamin Virrion, 2020. "Computation of Expected Shortfall by fast detection of worst scenarios," Working Papers hal-02619589, HAL.
    8. Denis Chetverikov & Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2022. "Weighted-average quantile regression," Papers 2203.03032, arXiv.org.
    9. Rockafellar, R.T. & Royset, J.O. & Miranda, S.I., 2014. "Superquantile regression with applications to buffered reliability, uncertainty quantification, and conditional value-at-risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 140-154.
    10. Zhongde Luo, 2020. "Nonparametric kernel estimation of CVaR under $$\alpha $$α-mixing sequences," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 615-643, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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