IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/agribz/v31y2015i4p507-520.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Milk Price Cycles in the U.S. Dairy Supply Chain and Their Management Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Charles F. Nicholson
  • Mark W. Stephenson

Abstract

ABSTRACT We develop a structural time‐series model based on state‐space methods and including feed costs as an exogenous regressor to assess the nature of cyclical behavior of the quarterly U.S. all‐milk price during 1996 to 2014. Although deterministic trend and seasonal price movements are present, a stochastic large‐amplitude cycle with a period of 3.3 years is the predominant source of variation in the U.S. all‐milk price during the period analyzed. These cycles are consistent with the hypothesis that supply chain managers make decisions based on bounded rationality, with limited supply chain coordination. The presence of price cycles in the U.S. dairy industry has management implications for dairy farmers, dairy processors, exporters, and food retailers. Forecasting and analytical models of U.S. farm milk prices should be designed to account for cyclical farm milk price behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles F. Nicholson & Mark W. Stephenson, 2015. "Milk Price Cycles in the U.S. Dairy Supply Chain and Their Management Implications," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 507-520, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:31:y:2015:i:4:p:507-520
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/agr.21416
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Paul Chavas & Matthew T. Holt, 1993. "Market Instability and Nonlinear Dynamics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 113-120.
    2. Chidmi, Benaissa & Fadiga, Mohamadou L., 2007. "Dynamics of Price-Cost Margins in the U.S. Meat Industry," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9745, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    4. Bergmann, Dennis & O’Connor, Declan & Thümmel, Andreas, 2013. "A decomposition analysis of the EU farm gate milk price," 87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 158702, Agricultural Economics Society.
    5. Yair Mundlak & He Huang, 1996. "International Comparisons of Cattle Cycles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 855-868.
    6. Nicholson, Charles F. & Stephenson, Mark W., 2014. "Dynamic Market Impacts of the Dairy Margin Protection Program," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 32(2).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huffaker, R. & Canavari, M. & Muñoz-Carpena, R., 2018. "Distinguishing between endogenous and exogenous price volatility in food security assessment: An empirical nonlinear dynamics approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 98-109.
    2. Alfons Weersink & Michael von Massow & Brendan McDougall & Nicholas Bannon, 2021. "Re‐examining the implications of COVID‐19 on the Canadian dairy and poultry sectors," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 215-224, June.
    3. Montserrat Costa†Font & Cesar Revoredo†Giha, 2018. "An empirical analysis of U.K. milk contract prices 2004–2016," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 112-141, December.
    4. Roel Jongeneel & Ana Gonzalez-Martinez, 2022. "EU Dairy after the Quota Abolition: Inelastic Asymmetric Price Responsiveness and Adverse Milk Supply during Crisis Time," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Fan, Zaifeng & Jump, Jeff & Tse, Yiuman & Yu, Linda, 2023. "Volatility in US dairy futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    6. Bjørn Gunnar Hansen & Yushu Li, 2017. "An Analysis of Past World Market Prices of Feed and Milk and Predictions for the Future," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 175-193, April.
    7. Jingjing Wang & Xiaoyang Wang & Xiaohua Yu, 2023. "Shocks, cycles and adjustments: The case of China's Hog Market under external shocks," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 703-726, July.
    8. Aisha Hassan & Li Cui-Xia & Naveed Ahmad & Muzaffar Iqbal & Kramat Hussain & Muhammad Ishtiaq & Maira Abrar, 2021. "Safety Failure Factors Affecting Dairy Supply Chain: Insights from a Developing Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    9. Theodoros Skevas & Wyatt Thompson & Scott Brown & Victor E. Cabrera, 2021. "Milk Income over Feed Cost Margin, Margin Protection Program, and Farm Finances for a Sample of Wisconsin Dairies in 2000–2017," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1638-1657, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aadland, David, 2004. "Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1977-2002, September.
    2. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Vu, Phuong Anh & Wong, Bernard, 2020. "A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 50-71.
    3. François R. Velde, 2009. "Chronicle of a Deflation Unforetold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(4), pages 591-634, August.
    4. Wen Xu, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, October.
    5. Chao, Hui-Ping, 1998. "Regime Switching In Us Livestock Cycles," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20824, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Alejandro Rodriguez & Esther Ruiz, 2009. "Bootstrap prediction intervals in state–space models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 167-178, March.
    7. Parrini, Alessandro, 2013. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk in Factor Copula Models," MPRA Paper 103745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Vitanov, Nikolay K. & Sakai, Kenshi & Dimitrova, Zlatinka I., 2008. "SSA, PCA, TDPSC, ACFA: Useful combination of methods for analysis of short and nonstationary time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 187-202.
    9. Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2014. "Crise de la théorie et crise de la politique économique. Des modèles d'équilibre général stochastique aux modèles de dynamique hors de l'équilibre," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 65(1), pages 71-96.
    10. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Bayesian forecasting with the structural damped trend model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    12. Tommaso Proietti, 2002. "Some Reflections on Trend-Cycle Decompositions with Correlated Components," Econometrics 0209002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tobias Hartl & Roland Jucknewitz, 2022. "Approximate state space modelling of unobserved fractional components," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 75-98, January.
    14. Broto Carmen & Ruiz Esther, 2009. "Testing for Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the Components of Inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, May.
    15. Barkley Rosser, J. Jr., 2001. "Complex ecologic-economic dynamics and environmental policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 23-37, April.
    16. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2016. "Outlier detection in structural time series models: The indicator saturation approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 180-202.
    17. Oreste Napolitano & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The European Unemployment Gap and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1346-1358.
    18. Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto León-González & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Multivariate stochastic volatility with co-heteroscedasticity," CAMA Working Papers 2018-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Siem Jan Koopman & Joao Valle e Azevedo, 2003. "Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-052/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:31:y:2015:i:4:p:507-520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6297 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.