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Future price responses to USDA's Cold Storage report

Author

Listed:
  • Phil L. Colling

    (Market and Product Development at the Chicago Board of Trade)

  • Scott H. Irwin

    (Ohio State University)

  • Carl R. Zulauf

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, 2120 Fyffe Rd., Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210-1067)

Abstract

An event study is conducted of the informational content of US Department of Agriculture's Cold Storage report of pork bellies over the period January 1989 to December 1992. Analysis of Knight-Ridder's composite forecast derived from its pre-release survey of market analysts indicates it is a good proxy for the market's expectation of information contained in the report. Nearby pork belly and live hog futures prices are found to respond significantly to unanticipated information in the report. This finding supports the conclusion that the Cold Storage report provides information to the private market and, therefore, performs one of its public policy goals. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Suggested Citation

  • Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf, 1997. "Future price responses to USDA's Cold Storage report," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 393-400.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:13:y:1997:i:4:p:393-400
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1520-6297(199707/08)13:4<393::AID-AGR5>3.0.CO;2-U
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Runkle, 1992. "Do futures markets react efficiently to predictable errors in Government Announcements?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 635-643, December.
    2. Paul M. Patterson & B. Wade Brorsen, 1993. "USDA Export Sales Report: Is It News?," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 367-378.
    3. Colin A. Carter & Carl A. Galopin, 1993. "Informational Content of Government Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(3), pages 711-718.
    4. Orlen Grunewald & Mark S. McNulty & Arlo W. Biere, 1993. "Live Cattle Futures Response to Cattle on Feed Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 131-137.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    2. Olga Isengildina Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2024. "What do we know about the value and market impact of the US Department of Agriculture reports?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 698-736, June.

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