IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/joaaec/45048.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports

Author

Listed:
  • Isengildina-Massa, Olga
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Good, Darrel L.
  • Gomez, Jennifer K.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of situation and outlook information from World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in corn and soybean futures markets over the period 1985 to 2006. Results indicate that WASDE reports containing National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) crop production estimates and other domestic and international situation and outlook information have the largest impact; causing return variance on report sessions to be 7.38 times greater than normal return variance in corn futures and 6.87 times greater than normal return variance in soybean futures. WASDE reports limited to international situation information and domestic and international outlook information have a smaller impact. The results show that the impact of WASDE reports has increased over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2008. "The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:45048
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.45048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/45048/files/jaae-40-01-89.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.45048?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vogel, Fred A. & Bange, Gerald A., 1999. "Understanding USDA Crop Forecasts," USDA Miscellaneous 320799, United States Department of Agriculture.
    2. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Isengildina, Olga, 2006. "The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 308-331.
    4. Holbrook Working, 1948. "Theory of the Inverse Carrying Charge in Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-28.
    5. Orlen Grunewald & Mark S. McNulty & Arlo W. Biere, 1993. "Live Cattle Futures Response to Cattle on Feed Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 131-137.
    6. Ferris, Stephen P & Chance, Don M, 1987. "Trading Time Effects in Financial and Commodity Futures Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 281-294, May.
    7. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    8. David R. Just & Steven A. Wolf & Steve Wu & David Zilberman, 2002. "Consumption of Economic Information in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 39-52.
    9. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby & Barbara Ostdiek, 2006. "Information, Trading, and Volatility: Evidence from Weather‐Sensitive Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2899-2930, December.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. T. Randall Fortenbery & Daniel A. Sumner, 1993. "The effects of USDA reports in futures and options markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 157-173, April.
    12. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin, 1990. "The Reaction of Live Hog Futures Prices to USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 84-94.
    13. Williams, Jeffrey C., 2001. "Commodity futures and options," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 745-816, Elsevier.
    14. Victoria Salin & Amy P. Thurow & Katherine R. Smith & Nicole Elmer, 1998. "Exploring the Market for Agricultural Economics Information: Views of Private Sector Analysts," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 114-124.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Jennifer K. Gomez, 2008. "Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 473-490.
    2. Lehecka, Georg V., 2014. "The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert & McKenzie, Andrew & Thomsen, Michael, 2016. "The Value of Government Information in an Era of Declining Budgets," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235811, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert, 2019. "Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-76.
    5. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Isengildina, Olga, 2006. "The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Cao, Xiang & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael & Johansson, Robert C., 2021. "When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    7. Lehecka, Georg V., 2013. "The Reaction of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets to USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142491, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Michael K Adjemian & Robert Johansson & Andrew McKenzie & Michael Thomsen, 2018. "Was the Missing 2013 WASDE Missed?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 653-671, December.
    10. Olga Isengildina Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2024. "What do we know about the value and market impact of the US Department of Agriculture reports?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 698-736, June.
    11. Matthew Houser & Berna Karali, 2020. "How Scary Are Food Scares? Evidence from Animal Disease Outbreaks," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 283-306, June.
    12. R. Karina Gallardo & B. Wade Brorsen & Jayson Lusk, 2010. "Prediction markets: an experimental approach to forecasting cattle on feed," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(3), pages 414-426, November.
    13. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    14. McKenzie, Andrew M. & Thomsen, Michael R., 2001. "The Effect Of E. Coli O157:H7 On Beef Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    16. Chad Fiechter & Todd Kuethe & Michael Langemeier & James Mintert, 2025. "Change in farmer expectations from information surprises in the corn market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 107(1), pages 231-247, January.
    17. Andrew M. McKenzie & Jessica L. Darby, 2017. "Information Content of USDA Rice Reports and Price Reactions of Rice Futures," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 552-568, September.
    18. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.
    19. Lusk, Jayson L., 2016. "From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Products," C-FARE Reports 266593, Council on Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics (C-FARE).
    20. repec:ags:jrapmc:122315 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. R. Xie & O. Isengildina-Massa & G. P. Dwyer & J. L. Sharp, 2016. "The impact of public and semi-public information on cotton futures market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(36), pages 3416-3431, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:45048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.