IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wfo/wblltn/y2016i6p58-64.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Serguei Kaniovski

Abstract

Following a period of sluggish growth averaging ½ percent p.a. from 2012 to 2015, economic activity in Austria is expected to pick up over the medium term, averaging at a moderate pace of +1½ percent p.a. between 2016 and 2020. Foreign trade, government consumption and investment spending will contribute less to economic growth than prior to the financial market crisis and the recession 2008-09. Growth of private consumption should pick up from 0.5 percent p.a. 2011-2015 to 1.4 percent p.a. over the forecast period, receiving stimulus from higher disposable income due to the tax reform 2015-16, and from additional demand due to refugee immigration. While the moderate GDP growth will allow employment to increase by 1.1 percent p.a. from 2016 to 2020, the creation of new jobs will not prevent unemployment from rising further until 2018, since labour supply, both domestic and from abroad (driven also by the inflow of refugees), will outpace demand. The rate of unemployment may reach almost 10 percent (national definition) by 2017 and change little thereafter. Inflationary pressure will remain moderate over the medium term, at an annual rate of 1.7 percent. The inflation rate will be thus higher than the average in the euro area, making for somewhat smaller real income gains in Austria. Given the projected cyclical profile and the assumptions on the economic policy settings, a balanced general government budget, whether in nominal (Maastricht definition) or structural terms, may be difficult to achieve over the forecast horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2016. "Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(6), pages 58-64, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2016:i:6:p:58-64
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/58855
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: Payment required
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2015. "Confidence in the USA, Uncertainty in the Euro Area, Fragility in the Emerging Markets. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy until 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(19), pages 214-221, November.
    2. Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Peter Huber, 2016. "Zur Arbeitsmarktintegration von Asylsuchenden in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(3), pages 157-169, March.
    3. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik, 2015. "Wirtschaftswachstum weiterhin verhalten, Arbeitslosigkeit bleibt hoch. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(1), pages 51-66, January.
    4. Stefan Ederer, 2016. "Consumption Boosting Economic Growth in Austria. Economic Outlook for 2016 and 2017," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(1), pages 1-11, February.
    5. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2015. "Zuversicht in den USA, Unsicherheit im Euro-Raum, fragile Entwicklung in den Schwellenländern. Mittelfristige Prognose für die Weltwirtschaft bis 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(10), pages 769-777, October.
    6. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2015. "Steuerreform 2015/16 – Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen bis 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 399-416, May.
    7. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2015. "Moderate Growth with High Unemployment. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(27), pages 303-319, December.
    8. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2015. "The Tax Reform 2015-16 – Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(22), pages 250-265, December.
    9. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2015. "Mäßiges Wirtschaftswachstum mit hoher Arbeitslosigkeit. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(10), pages 779-796, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2017. "Fiscal Policy Facing Manifold Challenges. Federal Fiscal Framework 2017-2020 and Draft Federal Budget 2017," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 22(7), pages 58-72, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2015. "Moderate Growth with High Unemployment. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(27), pages 303-319, December.
    2. Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Facing Major Challenges with Tax Reform, Need for Growth-Enhancing Investment and Consolidation Targets. Federal Fiscal Framework 2016-2019 and Draft Federal Budget 2016," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(2), pages 12-29, February.
    3. Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2015. "The Tax Reform 2015-16 – Measures and Overall Assessment," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(20), pages 222-237, December.
    4. Josef Baumgartner & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik, 2016. "Moderate Economic Growth – Unemployment Remaining High. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy Until 2021," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(19), pages 185-201, December.
    5. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2016. "World Economy Expected to be Hardly Affected by UK's Exit from EU. Medium-term Forecast Until 2021," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(17), pages 168-177, December.
    6. Gerhard Streicher, 2015. "Using the FIDELIO Model to Estimate the Effects of the Tax Reform 2015-16 on Net Output," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(23), pages 266-272, December.
    7. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2015. "Mäßiges Wirtschaftswachstum mit hoher Arbeitslosigkeit. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(10), pages 779-796, October.
    8. Silvia Rocha-Akis & Viktor Steiner & Christine Zulehner, 2016. "Verteilungswirkungen des österreichischen Steuer- und Sozialabgabensystems 2007/2016," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(5), pages 347-359, May.
    9. Rainer Eppel & Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Helmut Mahringer, 2018. "Der österreichische Arbeitsmarkt seit der Wirtschaftskrise," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(3), pages 191-204, March.
    10. Josef Baumgartner & Marian Fink & Caroline Moreau & Silvia Rocha-Akis & Sarah Lappöhn & Kerstin Plank & Alexander Schnabl & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2020. "Wirkung der wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen zur Abfederung der COVID-19-Krise. Mikro- und makroökonomische Analysen zur konjunkturellen, fiskalischen und verteilungspolitischen Wirkung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66958.
    11. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2015. "The Tax Reform 2015-16 – Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(22), pages 250-265, December.
    12. Kronberger, Ralf & Schmid, Christoph, 2018. "Effects of the Austrian Income Tax Reform 2015/2016 on Private Consumption: Survey Findings," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 275, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    13. Wifo, 2017. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 7/2017," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 90(7), July.
    14. Michael Klien, 2016. "Simulationsergebnisse zu ausgewählten Optionen für eine Ausweitung der Steuerautonomie der Bundesländer," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(6), pages 437-450, June.
    15. Rainer Eppel & Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Thomas Horvath & Ulrike Huemer & Helmut Mahringer, 2018. "Anstieg und Verfestigung der Arbeitslosigkeit seit der Wirtschaftskrise. Entwicklung, Ursachen und Handlungsansätze," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 62227.
    16. Baumann, Alexendra & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Publikationen von Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten im deutschsprachigen Raum - Eine bibliometrische Analyse [Publications of Economic Research Insitutes in the German Speaking Area - A bibliometric ," MPRA Paper 92240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2015. "Steuerreform 2015/16 – Maßnahmen und Gesamteinschätzung," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 371-385, May.
    18. Gerhard Streicher, 2015. "Schätzung der Auswirkungen der Steuerreform 2015/16 auf die Wertschöpfung mit dem Modell FIDELIO," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 417-424, May.
    19. Wifo, 2015. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 10/2015," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(10), October.
    20. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger & Christina Seyfried, 2015. "Umfassende Steuerhoheit der österreichischen Bundesländer," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58545.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2016:i:6:p:58-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.