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World Economy Expected to be Hardly Affected by UK's Exit from EU. Medium-term Forecast Until 2021

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  • Stefan Schiman

Abstract

Global economic growth is set to gain only little momentum over the medium term. The US economy should expand at a solid pace, driven by buoyant domestic demand and an increasing labour force. Activity in the euro area will be more subdued, as the institutional shortcomings of Monetary Union undermine business confidence and the active population broadly stagnates. The UK exit from the EU will primarily affect the British economy itself, and to a lesser extent its trading partners. The growth momentum of the emerging markets keeps slackening further. Demand and output in China are slowing down, while Russia and Brazil recover only gradually from the current crisis, given the low raw material prices.

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  • Stefan Schiman, 2016. "World Economy Expected to be Hardly Affected by UK's Exit from EU. Medium-term Forecast Until 2021," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(17), pages 168-177, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2016:i:17:p:168-177
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amit Kara & Arno Hantzsche & Jason Lennard & Cyrille Lenoel & Marta Lopresto & Rebecca Piggott & Craig Thamotheram & Garry Young, 2018. "Prospects for the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 243(1), pages 10-42, February.
    2. Stefan Schiman, 2015. "Zuversicht in den USA, Unsicherheit im Euro-Raum, fragile Entwicklung in den Schwellenländern. Mittelfristige Prognose für die Weltwirtschaft bis 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(10), pages 769-777, October.
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    5. Simon Kirby & Ray Barrell & Vladimir Pillonca, 2009. "Prospects for the Uk Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 207(1), pages 51-70, January.
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    9. Jessica Baker & Oriol Carreras & Monique Ebell & Ian Hurst & Simon Kirby & Jack Meaning & Rebecca Piggott & James Warren, 2016. "The Short–Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 108-120, May.
    10. Stefan Schiman, 2015. "Confidence in the USA, Uncertainty in the Euro Area, Fragility in the Emerging Markets. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy until 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(19), pages 214-221, November.
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    13. Jakob Miethe & David Pothier, 2016. "Brexit: Was steht für den britischen Finanzsektor auf dem Spiel?," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 83(31), pages 681-690.
    14. Simon Kirby & Oriol Carreras & Jack Meaning & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Prospects for the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 82-107, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Baumgartner & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik, 2016. "Moderate Economic Growth – Unemployment Remaining High. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy Until 2021," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(19), pages 185-201, December.

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