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Confidence in the USA, Uncertainty in the Euro Area, Fragility in the Emerging Markets. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy until 2020

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  • Stefan Schiman-Vukan

Abstract

After the cyclical reversal in 2015, the Chinese economy will grow at a slower pace also in the years to come. This keeps commodity prices down over the medium term and complicates recovery in Russia and Brazil where forward-looking investment had been neglected while raw material prices were booming. Sluggish investment is also compromising growth opportunities in the euro area. The lack of policy co-ordination heightens economic uncertainty, and priority given to respective national policy goals reinforces divergence of developments. Better are growth perspectives in the USA, where the financial market crisis and the recession and its consequences were overcome by a skilful mix of monetary and fiscal policy, and where the momentum of demand and output is driven by a growing labour force.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2015. "Confidence in the USA, Uncertainty in the Euro Area, Fragility in the Emerging Markets. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy until 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(19), pages 214-221, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2015:i:19:p:214-221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2015. "Debt Accumulation and Deleveraging Shaping the Global Business Outlook. Medium-term Projection for the World Economy until 2019," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(7), pages 80-91, April.
    2. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2015. "Steuerentlastung stärkt, Gegenfinanzierung dämpft die Konjunktur. Prognose für 2015 und 2016," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(7), pages 539-550, July.
    3. Stefan Schiman, 2015. "Stimulating Effects of Tax Cuts Dampened By Counter-Financing Measures. Economic Outlook for 2015 and 2016," WIFO Economic Outlook, WIFO, number 58217, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2015. "Moderate Growth with High Unemployment. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(27), pages 303-319, December.
    2. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2016. "World Economy Expected to be Hardly Affected by UK's Exit from EU. Medium-term Forecast Until 2021," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(17), pages 168-177, December.
    3. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2016. "Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(6), pages 58-64, June.

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    Keywords

    Medium-term forecast; world economy;

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