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Using the FIDELIO Model to Estimate the Effects of the Tax Reform 2015-16 on Net Output

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  • Gerhard Streicher

Abstract

We estimate the effects of the Austrian tax reform of 2015-16 by using the econometric input-output model FIDELIO, which features an in-depth treatment of both private and public households' revenues, expenditures, budgets and consumption as well as price transmission. According to the simulations, the reform will, to some extent, succeed in boosting domestic demand, with private consumption rising by almost € 2.5 billion; both net output and GDP will rise perceptibly by € 290 million and € 1.35 billion, respectively. Among the sectors that profit most from the proposed changes in the tax regime are those with high income elasticities (and low import shares): real estate activities, (retail) trade, and financial services. The food production sector aside, manufacturing will experience very modest gains only, as a large share of its products is imported. High income elasticity, however, leads to moderate gains for hotels and restaurants, in spite of a higher value-added tax on hotel services and the upward pressure on prices due to fraud-preventing measures (especially the obligation to introduce cash registers).

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Streicher, 2015. "Using the FIDELIO Model to Estimate the Effects of the Tax Reform 2015-16 on Net Output," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(23), pages 266-272, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2015:i:23:p:266-272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerhard Streicher & Robert Stehrer, 2015. "Whither Panama? Constructing A Consistent And Balanced World Sut System Including International Trade And Transport Margins," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 213-237, June.
    2. Margit Schratzenstaller, 2015. "The Tax Reform 2015-16 – Measures and Overall Assessment," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(20), pages 222-237, December.
    3. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2015. "Steuerreform 2015/16 – Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen bis 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 399-416, May.
    4. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2015. "The Tax Reform 2015-16 – Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(22), pages 250-265, December.
    5. Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2015. "Steuerreform 2015/16 – Maßnahmen und Gesamteinschätzung," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(5), pages 371-385, May.
    6. José Manuel Rueda-Cantuche & Kurt Kratena & Gerhard Streicher & Frederik Neuwahl & Ignazio Mongelli & Jose M. Rueda-Cantuche & Aurelien Genty & Iñaki Arto & Valeria Andreoni, 2012. "FIDELIO: A fully interregional dynamic econometric long-term input-output model for the EU," EcoMod2012 4082, EcoMod.
    7. Silvia Rocha-Akis, 2015. "The Distributional Effects of the 2015-16 Tax Reform," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(21), pages 238-249, December.
    8. Kurt Kratena & Gerhard Streicher & Umed Temurshoev & Antonio F. Amores & Iñaki Arto & Ignazio Mongelli & Frederik Neuwahl & José-Manuel Rueda-Cantuche & Valeria Andreoni, 2013. "FIDELIO 1: Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output Model for the EU 27," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46816.
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