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Belebung des Wirtschaftswachstums nach Schwächephase. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2012

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Zwischen 2007 und 2012 dürften der Welthandel um durchschnittlich 7,2% und das Welt-BIP um 4,1% pro Jahr zunehmen, etwas rascher als in der Periode 2000/2007. Allerdings wird die Dynamik bis 2009 als Folge der internationalen Finanzkrise und der drastischen Verteuerung von Erdöl und anderen Rohstoffen gedämpft bleiben. In den USA wird das mittelfristige Wachstumstempo schwächer ausfallen als zwischen 2000 und 2007, in Deutschland und Japan hingegen stärker. Diese Entwicklung wird gemeinsam mit der Unterbewertung des Dollars eine merkliche Verringerung der Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte in der Weltwirtschaft ermöglichen.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Belebung des Wirtschaftswachstums nach Schwächephase. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2012," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 81(5), pages 353-364, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2008:i:5:p:353-364
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parities for Tradables, Exchange Rates and Price Competitiveness," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25656.
    2. Stephan Schulmeister, 2004. "Aktienkursdynamik und privater Konsum in den USA und in Deutschland," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25188.
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Globalization without Global Money: The Double Role of the Dollar as National Currency and World Currency," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 365-395, March.
    4. Stephan Schulmeister & Margit Schratzenstaller & Oliver Picek, 2008. "A General Financial Transaction Tax. Motives, Revenues, Feasibility and Effects," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 31819.
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    1. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Ewald Walterskirchen, 2008. "Private Consumption Becomes Strengthening Support to Growth due to Tax Cuts and Easing Inflation. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy from 2008 to 2012," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 13(2), pages 73-83, July.

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