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Weltwirtschaft wächst rascher – hohe Unsicherheit über Erdölpreis und Wechselkurse. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2010

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Mittelfristig dürfte sich das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft merklich beschleunigen. Zwischen 2005 und 2010 sollte das BIP insgesamt real um 4,4% pro Jahr expandieren. Die Dynamik wird in den Industrieländern geringer sein als in den Entwicklungsländern und hier am größten in China (+8,0%) und Indien (+7,1%). Auch die OPEC-Länder und Russland (jeweils +5,2%) werden dank anhaltend hoher Erdölpreise eine kräftige Expansion verzeichnen. In den USA dürfte das BIP (+3,1%) weiterhin rascher expandieren als in der EU 25 (+2,1%) und in Japan (+1,5%). Die Prognose geht von einem leichten mittelfristigen Anstieg der Erdölpreise und einem annähernd konstanten Euro-Dollar-Wechselkurs aus. Eine weitere markante Verteuerung von Erdöl oder eine starke Aufwertung des Euro würde das mittelfristige Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft merklich dämpfen.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2006. "Weltwirtschaft wächst rascher – hohe Unsicherheit über Erdölpreis und Wechselkurse. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2010," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 79(5), pages 359-373, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2006:i:5:p:359-373
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parities for Tradables, Exchange Rates and Price Competitiveness," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25656.
    2. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Globalization without Global Money: The Double Role of the Dollar as National Currency and World Currency," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 365-395, March.
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